966
FXUS61 KRLX 021549
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1149 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1149 AM FRIDAY...
PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST, AND A
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND, AND PERHAPS
SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AT
AROUND 11K FEET, AND -20 AT 21K FEET.
MAIN EVENT/GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA,
WITH MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT, WHICH HOPEFULLY WILL BE WANING SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD WITH TIME, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH STRONG FORCING AND PW VALUES AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WPC
STILL HAS PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE, AND EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT WOULD RECEIVE REPETITIVE CONVECTION AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE OVERALL WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD ISSUES. GREATEST RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE WITH THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA, AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER,
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE REALIZED. REGARDLESS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY HANGING AROUND ACROSS OUR
AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST BECOMES A CUT OFF LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA ALREADY WET FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
THERE IS AN ELEVATED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT EITHER NORTHWARD OR EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW THIS LOW WILL SHIFT BASED ON
HOW A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW
THAT WILL HAPPEN. SOME MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LESSER
CHANCES THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US MAY SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL US TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THAT LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA, AND HENCE A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 557 AM FRIDAY...
VFR RESUMES THIS MORNING UNDER BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, SW'RLY WINDS PICK UP TO A STEADY BREEZE, WHICH
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE THAT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
ALLOWED VCTS AT A FEW SITES WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
EXISTS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN THIS EVENING. CURRENT TIMING IS BETWEEN ~23 AND ~03Z.
STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO 1.00" TO 1.25". MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE LINE AS THE
DRIVING COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT,
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY GOING INTO SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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