151
FXUS61 KRLX 021734
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1149 AM FRIDAY...
PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST, AND A
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND, AND PERHAPS
SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AT
AROUND 11K FEET, AND -20 AT 21K FEET.
MAIN EVENT/GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA,
WITH MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT, WHICH HOPEFULLY WILL BE WANING SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD WITH TIME, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH STRONG FORCING AND PW VALUES AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WPC
STILL HAS PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE, AND EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT WOULD RECEIVE REPETITIVE CONVECTION AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE OVERALL WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD ISSUES. GREATEST RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE WITH THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA, AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER,
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE REALIZED. REGARDLESS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY HANGING AROUND ACROSS OUR
AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRIUMPH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW PROPAGATE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, A DISTURBANCE
WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE PARENT H5 LOW, WITH SHOWERS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NESTLED IN THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT LESSENING IN
COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SET UP AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AND RESULTING
ACTIVE WEATHER. TRAINING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND WILL PROVOKE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK
AMID AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDING STEADY OVER THE
COUNTRY. THIS KEEPS A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SURFACE FEATURES LOFTING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIA
AS OMEGA BLOCKING BECOMES DISMANTLED FOR MIDWEEK, BUT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME OVERTAKEN BY RENEWED PRECIPITATION BY THE
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN REGARDS TO TIMING
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOW PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
BECOME AFTER WEDNESDAY REMAIN MURKY, SO DID NOT STRAY FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, MOSTLY ACROSS SE OHIO, NE KY, AND
PARTS OF WV LOWLANDS THROUGH 00Z, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HAIL,
AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR. ALTHOUGH BULK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
WANE AFTER 00Z, A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 23Z, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/STORMS AFFECTING PRIMARILY SE OH, NE KY, AND
THE LOWLANDS OF WV. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS
OF IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT
FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z, BUT AREAS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR WILL REMAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP BACK UP IN COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL
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