293
FXUS61 KRLX 030033
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
833 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 830 PM FRIDAY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WAS REPORTED WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THEY GOT AFFECTED
BY COOLING/WETTING SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1149 AM FRIDAY...
PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST, AND A
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND, AND PERHAPS
SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AT
AROUND 11K FEET, AND -20 AT 21K FEET.
MAIN EVENT/GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA,
WITH MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT, WHICH HOPEFULLY WILL BE WANING SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD WITH TIME, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH STRONG FORCING AND PW VALUES AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WPC
STILL HAS PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE, AND EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT WOULD RECEIVE REPETITIVE CONVECTION AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE OVERALL WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD ISSUES. GREATEST RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE WITH THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA, AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER,
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE REALIZED. REGARDLESS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY HANGING AROUND ACROSS OUR
AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRIUMPH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW PROPAGATE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, A DISTURBANCE
WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE PARENT H5 LOW, WITH SHOWERS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NESTLED IN THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT LESSENING IN
COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SET UP AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AND RESULTING
ACTIVE WEATHER. TRAINING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND WILL PROVOKE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK
AMID AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDING STEADY OVER THE
COUNTRY. THIS KEEPS A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SURFACE FEATURES LOFTING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIA
AS OMEGA BLOCKING BECOMES DISMANTLED FOR MIDWEEK, BUT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME OVERTAKEN BY RENEWED PRECIPITATION BY THE
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN REGARDS TO TIMING
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOW PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
BECOME AFTER WEDNESDAY REMAIN MURKY, SO DID NOT STRAY FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 734 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR/IFR UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER THESE STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP BACK UP IN COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/03/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page