045
FXUS61 KRLX 030616
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE RETURNS ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT ONLY A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND. STARK PRECIPITATION CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING OVER OUR AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVING US A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY
ARE CURRENTLY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F AT THE TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT GAINS SOME STEAM AND SLOWLY SAGS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EFFICIENT WITH VALUES BETWEEN
1.00" AND 1.50". THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND THE STATE OF WV
IS PAINTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLIGHT RISK INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WV AND THE MOUNTAINS WITH MODELS PREDICTING SOME
SERIOUS TRAINING OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING A FEW
HIRES MODELS SHOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, WITH THE USUAL THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY (AROUND OR BELOW
1,000 J/KG), SO BEST CHANCES FOR UPDRAFTS WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING. SHEAR DOES LOOK BETTER TODAY WITH
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO TRACK OVERHEAD. VALUES WILL
BE BETWEEN 30 AND 50 KTS, WHICH MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE LIMITED
CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRIUMPH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW PROPAGATE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, A DISTURBANCE
WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE PARENT H5 LOW, WITH SHOWERS CIRCULATING
AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NESTLED IN THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT LESSENING IN
COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SET UP AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AND RESULTING
ACTIVE WEATHER. TRAINING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND WILL PROVOKE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK
AMID AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDING STEADY OVER THE
COUNTRY. THIS KEEPS A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SURFACE FEATURES LOFTING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIA
AS OMEGA BLOCKING BECOMES DISMANTLED FOR MIDWEEK, BUT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME OVERTAKEN BY RENEWED PRECIPITATION BY THE
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN REGARDS TO TIMING
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOW PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
BECOME AFTER WEDNESDAY REMAIN MURKY, SO DID NOT STRAY FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE RETURNS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HTS AND CKB ACTUALLY REPORTING HYDROMETEORS REACHING
THE SURFACE. STARK PRECIPITATION CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS EASTERN KY, WHICH WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY. STILL, MOST
SITES ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS, NAMELY BKW, CKB, EKN,
AND PKB COULD SEE SOME INTERMITTENT SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS AT THOSE SITES.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WITH VFR CEILINGS HOLDING UNTIL AFTER
~09Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BY ABOUT ~12Z THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT GAINS STEAM AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
BY ABOUT ~14-15Z, ACHIEVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS LEADING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING A BIT
OF A REPRIEVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH AHEAD OF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME AFTER ~12Z AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE
COLD FRONT AND ANCHORING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVE OVERHEAD. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY VARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. WIND
DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE WILL VARY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/03/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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