940
FXUS61 KRLX 031440
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AMID A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1040 AM SATURDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO, AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-R IMAGERY
EVINCES A BAROCLINIC S SPRAWLING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, AHEAD OF A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UP
AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI.
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM SUPPORT THE
FORECAST OF SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 550 AM SATURDAY...
TOUCHED UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH OBS. ALSO
UPDATED POPS WITH LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE FOR BEST TIMING.
SOME SHOWERS RESIDE TO OUR WEST MOVING FROM SSW TO NNE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND OUR KY AND OH
COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL BEGIN FILLING IN EASTWARD
LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AM AND 11 AM AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE RETURNS ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT ONLY A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND. STARK PRECIPITATION CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING OVER OUR AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVING US A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY
ARE CURRENTLY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F AT THE TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT GAINS SOME STEAM AND SLOWLY SAGS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EFFICIENT WITH VALUES BETWEEN
1.00" AND 1.50". THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND THE STATE OF WV
IS PAINTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLIGHT RISK INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WV AND THE MOUNTAINS WITH MODELS PREDICTING SOME
SERIOUS TRAINING OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING A FEW
HIRES MODELS SHOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, WITH THE USUAL THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY (AROUND OR BELOW
1,000 J/KG), SO BEST CHANCES FOR UPDRAFTS WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING. SHEAR DOES LOOK BETTER TODAY WITH
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO TRACK OVERHEAD. VALUES WILL
BE BETWEEN 30 AND 50 KTS, WHICH MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE LIMITED
CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
ALREADY WET FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT EITHER NORTHEASTWARD OR
EASTWARD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW THIS
LOW WILL SHIFT BASED ON HOW A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW
THAT WILL HAPPEN. SOME MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LESSER
CHANCES THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, DEVIATING CONSIDERABLY FROM RUNS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT THAT
WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US, PULLING COOLER AIR DOWN INTO OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO BE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN LAST NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO THE MAJOR CHANGE
IN SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW SITES
SEEING SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG FROM LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN
~13-15Z AS A STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST GAINS STEAM AND
SLOWLY MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN BY ABOUT ~15Z, ACHIEVING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS LEADING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AS SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TODAY. TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO MOST
SITES TO COVER UNCERTAINTY FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION
AND CONVECTION.
EXPECTING A BIT OF A REPRIEVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH AHEAD OF
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE.
S'RLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND COULD BE BREEZY AT
TIMES AS THE COLD FRONT AND ANCHORING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVE
OVERHEAD. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY VARY THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VARY TODAY. WIND DIRECTION AND
MAGNITUDE WILL VARY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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