789
FXUS61 KRLX 031844
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AMID A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI FEATURED
AN INCIPIENT LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN CHUG EASTWARD ALONG
THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SWIRL ABOUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. WHILE IT MAY NOT DEEPEN
MUCH, THE LOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOSED OFF AMID A
DEVELOPING OMEGA PATTERN TONIGHT, WHICH THEN EVOLVES INTO A REX
PATTERN ON SUNDAY, AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OOZES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, A DAMPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER SCOOTING UP THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS EVIDENCED BY THE BEND IN THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THERE, GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHICH THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING
LOOSELY DEFINED ON SUNDAY, AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STACKED.
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-MOVING
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WAS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
NARROW CAPE AMID THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS
EVENING.
THE THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, AS THE
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER, AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
IT, MOVE IN. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL LESSEN THE SEVERE
THREAT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL THEN FOCUS CLOSER TO AND IN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WANE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW AN
INCH, BUT CELLS CAN STILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHEN RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS,
AND, WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT, HAIL.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE TODAY SHOULD
CONVERGE WITH IT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE, AND
A MODEST DECREASE IN DEW POINTS IN THE DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 207 PM SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. AT THIS
POINT, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE DUE TO A POTENTIAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST.
LOW WILL GRADUALLY KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY, AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 207 PM SATURDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED. UPPER LOW MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE AND PHASE WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE
THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., PUTTING OUR
AREA IN A COOLER, BUT STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT IN AN UNEVEN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
SHOWERS, WITH MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING CAN
AFFECT ALL SITES INTO THIS EVENING, AS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE THE FIRST LOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT, AS THE SECOND LOW,
AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM IT, MOVE IN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.
IFR STRATUS AND FOG CAN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BECOM LESS NUMEROUS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT START TO
BECOME MORE LIKELY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POISSIBLE, EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW, A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY, EXCEPT GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, BUT BECOME
CYCLONIC OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE SECOND LOW
CROSSES, BEFORE RETURNING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THERE FOR SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM WOBBLES WESTWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VARY. WIND DIRECTION AND
MAGNITUDE WILL VARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF IFR STRATUS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MOIRNING, AND IMNPROVEMENT SUNDAY
MORNING, IS UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H M M H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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