433
FXUS61 KRLX 040557
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AMID A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 445 PM SATURDAY...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS STARTING WITH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, THEN USED THE NAMDNG, HRRTL AND CMCREG MODELS TO
PROJECT POPS THROUGH 03Z. OVERCAST SKIES HAVE INHIBITED
CONVECTION AREAWIDE, NOW LIMITED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH AN ARRIVING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST. ADJUSTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE TWO FEATURES, REMOVING THUNDER
ELSEWHERE. THESE STORMS COMING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS NE KY, SE OH AND PORTIONS OF WV FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER
CENTRAL WV, EXITING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, AND THEN STALLS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI FEATURED
AN INCIPIENT LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN CHUG EASTWARD ALONG
THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SWIRL ABOUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. WHILE IT MAY NOT DEEPEN
MUCH, THE LOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOSED OFF AMID A
DEVELOPING OMEGA PATTERN TONIGHT, WHICH THEN EVOLVES INTO A REX
PATTERN ON SUNDAY, AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OOZES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, A DAMPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER SCOOTING UP THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS EVIDENCED BY THE BEND IN THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THERE, GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHICH THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING
LOOSELY DEFINED ON SUNDAY, AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STACKED.
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-MOVING
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WAS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
NARROW CAPE AMID THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS
EVENING.
THE THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, AS THE
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER, AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
IT, MOVE IN. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL LESSEN THE SEVERE
THREAT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL THEN FOCUS CLOSER TO AND IN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WANE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW AN
INCH, BUT CELLS CAN STILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHEN RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS,
AND, WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT, HAIL.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE TODAY SHOULD
CONVERGE WITH IT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE, AND
A MODEST DECREASE IN DEW POINTS IN THE DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 207 PM SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. AT THIS
POINT, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE DUE TO A POTENTIAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST.
LOW WILL GRADUALLY KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY, AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 207 PM SATURDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED. UPPER LOW MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE AND PHASE WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE
THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., PUTTING OUR
AREA IN A COOLER, BUT STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO PUMP SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
OUT, BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE REMAIN AND LIKELY WILL
ACROSS THE NORTH EVEN AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST SITES
THIS MORNING TO COVER THE INTERMITTENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO MANIFEST THIS
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE, LOW STRATUS, AND SOME VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. MODELS SHOW IFR CEILINGS RETREATING OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER ~12Z, AND VFR MOVING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN
LATER THIS MORNING AROUND ~15-16Z, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
BEING STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW FOR TORNADO FORMATION. RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOWER. MORE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UNDER LOW
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT TO BREEZY SW'RLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY. EXTENT OF IFR STRATUS
AND FOG THIS MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD
ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M M L M H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H L L L L L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L H M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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