464
FXUS61 KRLX 040630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AMID A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 445 PM SATURDAY...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS STARTING WITH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, THEN USED THE NAMDNG, HRRTL AND CMCREG MODELS TO
PROJECT POPS THROUGH 03Z. OVERCAST SKIES HAVE INHIBITED
CONVECTION AREAWIDE, NOW LIMITED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH AN ARRIVING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST. ADJUSTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE TWO FEATURES, REMOVING THUNDER
ELSEWHERE. THESE STORMS COMING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS NE KY, SE OH AND PORTIONS OF WV FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER
CENTRAL WV, EXITING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, AND THEN STALLS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI FEATURED
AN INCIPIENT LOW NEAR ST. LOUIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN CHUG EASTWARD ALONG
THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SWIRL ABOUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. WHILE IT MAY NOT DEEPEN
MUCH, THE LOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOSED OFF AMID A
DEVELOPING OMEGA PATTERN TONIGHT, WHICH THEN EVOLVES INTO A REX
PATTERN ON SUNDAY, AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OOZES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, A DAMPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER SCOOTING UP THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS EVIDENCED BY THE BEND IN THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THERE, GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHICH THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING
LOOSELY DEFINED ON SUNDAY, AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STACKED.
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-MOVING
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WAS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
NARROW CAPE AMID THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS
EVENING.
THE THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, AS THE
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER, AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
IT, MOVE IN. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL LESSEN THE SEVERE
THREAT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL THEN FOCUS CLOSER TO AND IN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WANE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW AN
INCH, BUT CELLS CAN STILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHEN RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS,
AND, WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT, HAIL.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE TODAY SHOULD
CONVERGE WITH IT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE, AND
A MODEST DECREASE IN DEW POINTS IN THE DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
ALREADY WET FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS, LEADING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
LESSER CHANCES THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH EITHER
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINLY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO DETERMINES HOW MUCH IF ANY AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS ON THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO PUMP SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
OUT, BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE REMAIN AND LIKELY WILL
ACROSS THE NORTH EVEN AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST SITES
THIS MORNING TO COVER THE INTERMITTENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO MANIFEST THIS
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE, LOW STRATUS, AND SOME VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. MODELS SHOW IFR CEILINGS RETREATING OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER ~12Z, AND VFR MOVING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN
LATER THIS MORNING AROUND ~15-16Z, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
BEING STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW FOR TORNADO FORMATION. RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOWER. MORE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UNDER LOW
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT TO BREEZY SW'RLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY. EXTENT OF IFR STRATUS
AND FOG THIS MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD
ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L M M L H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H M M L M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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