169
FXUS61 KRLX 041716
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
116 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AD NAUSEAM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING, AMID
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...
MORNING MIXING AMID MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS RESULTED IN LOW
STRATOCUMULUS, WHICH WILL MIX HIGHER THROUGH MIDDAY. BREAKS IN
THE STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING,
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF A NEARLY STACKED MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWIRLING ABOUT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT OVER THE
AREA SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON RADAR.
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...
SEEING A DECENT DRY SLOT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT. THERE ARE PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH TO CHANGE
WITH THE FORECAST OTHER THAN REFRESHING TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION
ONSET WITH LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE.
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
LARGE, UPPER-LEVEL, CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL OVERHEAD
KEEPING A FRONT PARKED ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING REINFORCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR OUR SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AS THERE AREA
FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
STALLED FRONT WILL GAIN STEAM AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE TROUBLESOME LOW OCCLUDES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT ACCELERATES. A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE,
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, BUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
EXISTS DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING SOME CURVATURE TO THE
WINDS PROFILES. FLASH FLOODING IS OF COURSE A CONCERN TODAY
AFTER THE SEEMINGLY CONTINUOUS CAROUSEL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THE PREVIOUS DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS LESS THREATENING
TODAY THOUGH WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. TRAINING
STORMS OVER ALREADY INUNDATED AND HIGHLY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT FOR HYDRO ISSUES TODAY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POWERFUL BETWEEN 50 AND 75 KNOTS, BUT LOWER
LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AT LESS THAN 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
CAPE VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE EITHER REMAINING BELOW 1,000
J/KG WITH A FEW SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOWING AN AVERAGE OF LESS THAN
500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS SOME PUNCHY 3CAPE VALUES
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF THE
MAIN UPDRAFTS. FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS RATHER LOW. IF THE LACK OF CAPE DID NOT
EXIST THEN HAIL WOULD BE AN ISSUE TODAY, BUT OVERALL THINKING IS
THAT TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. ANOTHER
REPRIEVE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. AT THIS POINT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LACK OF INSTABILITY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY
KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY, AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE AND
PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA. MODELS TEND
TO AGREE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
PUTTING OUR AREA IN A COOLER, BUT STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN, BUT
OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY...
SEEING A VARIATION IN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS
HAS FORMED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA, SE OHIO, NE KENTUCKY, AND
THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. TERMINALS IN THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
BEEN REPORTING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS.
THERE IS PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LOWLANDS. CKB, CRW, AND EKN HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THIS. THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS MOVING OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. AFTER THESE CLEAR OUT EXPECTING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD UNTIL
THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES LATER.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN
LATER THIS MORNING AROUND ~15-16Z, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
BEING STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW FOR TORNADO FORMATION. RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOWER. MORE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UNDER LOW
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT TO BREEZY SW'RLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY. EXTENT OF IFR STRATUS
AND FOG THIS MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD
ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M M H H H M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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