396
FXUS61 KRLX 041826
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AD NAUSEAM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS, WITH CONCERNS
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING ABOUT THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY GOVERNS THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD.
WHILE MID-MAY HEATING BENEATH THE COLD MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE CONVECTION THIS AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON, EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
EACH AFTERNOON, ONLY FURTHER AGGRAVATING THE CONVECTION, MAKING
STORMS BOTH MORE NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES BRING A POCKET OF -24C H5 AIR UP THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL MOVE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SCENARIO WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR A
BIT OF A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE SETUP AND RESULTING
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SUBSIDES TONIGHT AS THE SUN SETS, AND
THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
BOTH AFTERNOONS FEATURE CAPE OF 500-750 J/KG AND 40-80 KTS 0-6 AND 0-
8 KM SHEAR, THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHERE THE JET AXIS RESIDES. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH MARGINAL SEVERE LIMITS AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND FREEZING LEVELS OF 5000-75000 FT AGL
MAKING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EASIER TO ATTAIN WITH
STORM TOPS TO 40 KFT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO FIRE A BIT EARLIER ON
MONDAY, COMPARED WITH TODAY, POSSIBLY OWING TO A BIT LESS
MORNING STRATOCUMULUS.
THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK OUT OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO EDGE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, TO THE POINT WHERE IT ENVELOPS ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS NUDGED THE MARGINAL
RISK FARTHER SOUTHWEST, CLOSE TO BUT STILL NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY IN THE CALM BETWEEN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY AND SHORT WAVES, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, AS THE LOW CENTER IS BROAD IN THE LOW LEVELS INCLUDING
AT THE SURFACE, MAKING FOR LIGHT PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND
LIGHT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. LOWER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
COMPARED WITH LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING, BRING LOWS
BELOW NORMAL AND FURTHER INVITE FOG FORMATION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
ALSO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE TODAY, AND HENCE A BIT
FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. AT THIS POINT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LACK OF INSTABILITY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY
KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY, AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE AND
PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA. MODELS TEND
TO AGREE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
PUTTING OUR AREA IN A COOLER, BUT STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN, BUT
OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STIR UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER CAN BRING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS BENEATH THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
COULD ALSO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, BUT IFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
BEFORE LIFTING INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN WEST ON MONDAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M H H H H M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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