205
FXUS61 KRLX 050442
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1242 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY WET
FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT, REACHING SOUTHEAST OHIO OR
NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEING SO CLOSE TO
THE UPPER LOW, CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. AT THIS POINT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LACK OF INSTABILITY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY
KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY, AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
DRY OUT, ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO A WAVE AND
PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA. MODELS TEND
TO AGREE THIS TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
PUTTING OUR AREA IN A COOLER, BUT STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN, BUT
OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR,
BUT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP. THE FOG MAY NOT MAINTAIN HOWEVER, AND COULD
DISSIPATE IF CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER THAT AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SITES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ON THE FOG OBSTRUCTIONS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RESTRICTIONS,
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY LATE EVENING, SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW WITH FOG, OTHERWISE MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
FOG COULD VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/05/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M M M M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L L L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M L L L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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