362
FXUS61 KRLX 050645
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER COMES MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY WET
FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT, REACHING SOUTHEAST OHIO OR
NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEING SO CLOSE TO
THE UPPER LOW, CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
MODELS KEEP THE STUBBORN, UPPER-LEVEL, CLOSED LOW OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY WITH A STURDY OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT
PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
AS A RESULT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS CAPE VALUES
WILL BE SUB 500 J/KG IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS
THOUGH AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO ANY SOURCE LIFT.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY LOW ON NAM SOUNDINGS, BETWEEN 4,000
AND 8,000 FEET, SO HAIL WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS OR ALONG ANY RIDGE TOPS UNDERNEATH
STORMS. OVERALL, MORE OF THE SAME THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BETWEEN
0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES, WHICH ISN'T TOO CONCERNING, BUT HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALREADY
WATERLOGGED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW THE SEASONABLE NORM WITH THE LOWLANDS
STAYING IN THE 60S AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL START TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR BIT OF A DRY PERIOD TO MANIFEST ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
AS MENTIONED, A DRIER PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR A 500MB RIDGE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE 'DIRTY' WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE 700-500MB FLOW. ALLOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS
WHERE A SOURCE OF LIFT COULD CREATE SOME ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LOWLANDS FINALLY RISING INTO
THE 70S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE ONCE MORE AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
BEHEMOTH CUT OFF LOW ON FRIDAY. MOST MODELS KEEP IT OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST, BUT THE EURO'S SOLUTION IS TO KEEP IT OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE PUNTING IT OFF EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NEEDLE
WILL BE BACK ON THE BROKEN RECORD FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING
TREND WILL KICK OFF THIS COMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ON THE BOARD FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL THERE DEPENDING ON WHICH ZONES
GET ADDED TO THE GROWING SEASON THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR,
BUT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP. THE FOG MAY NOT MAINTAIN HOWEVER, AND COULD
DISSIPATE IF CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER THAT AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SITES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ON THE FOG OBSTRUCTIONS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RESTRICTIONS,
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY LATE EVENING, SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW WITH FOG, OTHERWISE MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
FOG COULD VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/05/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M L L L L H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY
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