969
FXUS61 KRLX 051737
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER COMES MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TRIGGER OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WITH ITS CORE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 7,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, SO SMALL
HAIL WILL BE COMMON IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.
SCATTERED LOW STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT, AND PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA, ALIGNED NEAR THE
NEW LOCATION OF THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
MODELS KEEP THE STUBBORN, UPPER-LEVEL, CLOSED LOW OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY WITH A STURDY OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT
PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
AS A RESULT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS CAPE VALUES
WILL BE SUB 500 J/KG IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS
THOUGH AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO ANY SOURCE LIFT.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY LOW ON NAM SOUNDINGS, BETWEEN 4,000
AND 8,000 FEET, SO HAIL WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS OR ALONG ANY RIDGE TOPS UNDERNEATH
STORMS. OVERALL, MORE OF THE SAME THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BETWEEN
0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES, WHICH ISN'T TOO CONCERNING, BUT HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALREADY
WATERLOGGED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW THE SEASONABLE NORM WITH THE LOWLANDS
STAYING IN THE 60S AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL START TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR BIT OF A DRY PERIOD TO MANIFEST ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDER WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
AS MENTIONED, A DRIER PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR A 500MB RIDGE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE 'DIRTY' WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE 700-500MB FLOW. ALLOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS
WHERE A SOURCE OF LIFT COULD CREATE SOME ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LOWLANDS FINALLY RISING INTO
THE 70S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE ONCE MORE AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
BEHEMOTH CUT OFF LOW ON FRIDAY. MOST MODELS KEEP IT OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST, BUT THE EURO'S SOLUTION IS TO KEEP IT OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE PUNTING IT OFF EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NEEDLE
WILL BE BACK ON THE BROKEN RECORD FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING
TREND WILL KICK OFF THIS COMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ON THE BOARD FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FROST POTENTIAL THERE DEPENDING ON WHICH ZONES
GET ADDED TO THE GROWING SEASON THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 126 PM MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND THESE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR IF
A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL. IN ADDITION, OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z TUESDAY. THEN, EXPECT LOW
STRATUS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOME TERMINALS, ALONG WITH
IFR DENSE FOG AT KEKN AND KBKW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREAWIDE BY 14Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN VARY. TIMING
AND LOCATION OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC
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