902
FXUS61 KRLX 052319
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
719 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. MORE SHOWERS AND A STORM ON
TUESDAY. A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER COMES MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...
OTHER THAN TWEAKING A FEW OF THE WEATHER PARAMETERS SLIGHTLY FOR
THE AVIATION PACKAGE, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT.
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TRIGGER OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WITH ITS CORE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 7,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, SO SMALL
HAIL WILL BE COMMON IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.
SCATTERED LOW STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT, AND PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA, ALIGNED NEAR THE
NEW LOCATION OF THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY...
WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH LESS CERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANY HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIDES OVER THE AREA
COULD BE A BIT OF A 'DIRTY' HIGH, WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS, AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS, OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
START TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH US FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST,
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STARTING TO INCREASE HEADING TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EITHER BE THROUGH US OR CROSSING THE CWA TO
START THURSDAY, BUT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE, WE
CAN EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A BIT OF CLEARING
AND INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR, AS THE GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE BROADER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ANY SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER, SOME UPPER RIDGING AND/OR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY LESS MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THAT WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN, AND WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT,
AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WE LOOK TO WARM
BACK TOWARDS OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT
MAY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT EFFECTS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 720 PM MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING IN NATURE AND SHOULD REMAIN QUIET
OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
BRING VIS/CIGS DOWN TO MAYBE MVFR OR SLIGHTLY BETTER. FOR THE
MOST PART OUTSIDE ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING AT
(CRW/EKN/BKW) VFR SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN MVFR
CIGS BECOME A REALITY AND LIFTS TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JZ/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ
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