019
FXUS61 KRLX 060443
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER COMES MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING ALL
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THAT
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL MEAN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND LESS NUMEROUS FURTHER SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE IN EARNEST
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEING DRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY...
WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TRIGGER OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WITH ITS CORE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 7,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, SO SMALL
HAIL WILL BE COMMON IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.
SCATTERED LOW STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT, AND PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA, ALIGNED NEAR THE
NEW LOCATION OF THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW.
MAYBE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH LESS CERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANY HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIDES OVER THE AREA
COULD BE A BIT OF A 'DIRTY' HIGH, WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS, AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS, OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
START TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH US FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST,
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STARTING TO INCREASE HEADING TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EITHER BE THROUGH US OR CROSSING THE CWA TO
START THURSDAY, BUT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE, WE
CAN EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A BIT OF CLEARING
AND INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR, AS THE GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE BROADER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ANY SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER, SOME UPPER RIDGING AND/OR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY LESS MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THAT WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN, AND WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT,
AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WE LOOK TO WARM
BACK TOWARDS OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT
MAY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT EFFECTS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.
LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG IN OHIO AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, BUT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR,
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY NOT MAINTAIN HOWEVER, AND COULD DISSIPATE
IF CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER THAT AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SITES
BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ON THE FOG OBSTRUCTIONS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RESTRICTIONS, MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/06/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L M L L L L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L H M H H L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M L L L M L L H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...RPY
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