138
FXUS61 KRLX 060707
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING ALL
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THAT
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL MEAN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND LESS NUMEROUS FURTHER SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE IN EARNEST
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEING DRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STATIONED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING,
BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
REACHING THE 1 INCH MARK. WITH MODEST COLUMN MOISTURE, LIMITED IF
ANY INSTABILITY, AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT, NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, GENERALLY A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AMIDST
A WARMING TREND. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SEEM REMARKABLY WELL
CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION GIVEN USUAL POOR HANDLING OF CUT-OFF
UPPER LOWS, I WOULD ASSIGN A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
IS EXPECTED TO START WORKING ITS WAY NORTH WHICH COULD YIELD SOME
DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
BY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY..
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.
LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG IN OHIO AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, BUT WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR,
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY NOT MAINTAIN HOWEVER, AND COULD DISSIPATE
IF CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER THAT AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SITES
BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ON THE FOG OBSTRUCTIONS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RESTRICTIONS, MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/06/25
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY
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