074
FXUS61 KRLX 061547
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1147 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 815 AM TUESDAY...
HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPREAD OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT NEAR
TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING ALL
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THAT
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL MEAN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND LESS NUMEROUS FURTHER SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE IN EARNEST
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEING DRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1144 AM TUESDAY...
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST THURSDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A STREAM OF 500-MB VORTICITY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 18Z
THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, BUT
OTHERS SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE GULF.
HOWEVER, IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED, SHOWERS COULD BE REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1144 AM TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL
STUCK IN THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER, CHANGES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST, SO WE WILL
BE MONITORING FOR THAT IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY, WHICH WILL
REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 515 AM TUESDAY...
DENSE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CAUSE RESTRICTIONS, MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT, SOME MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH STAY
MAINLY VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DISSIPATING COULD VARY.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L M H H H M M H M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page