794
FXUS61 KRLX 062339
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 415 PM TUESDAY...
UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTEAD, CODED STRATIFORMED
LIGHT RAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR PRODUCING
LOW VISIBILITY AND LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COULD LAST LONGER ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PASSES BY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WHILE SOME
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DIMINISHES AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. QUIET BUT CLOUDY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE CWA.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD TODAY,
THEN LOWS RANGE FROM 40S TO 50S TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING 70S IN THE LOWLANDS AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1144 AM TUESDAY...
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST THURSDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A STREAM OF 500-MB VORTICITY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 18Z
THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, BUT
OTHERS SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE GULF.
HOWEVER, IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED, SHOWERS COULD BE REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1144 AM TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL
STUCK IN THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER, CHANGES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST, SO WE WILL
BE MONITORING FOR THAT IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY, WHICH WILL
REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 735 PM TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL PROVIDE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PKB, CKB AND EKN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS COULD LAST LONGER AT CKB AND EKN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT HTS, CRW AND BKW UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FOG COULD
AFFECT EKN OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RUNNING LOW.
FOR WEDNESDAY, ANY LINGERING LOW CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, AND EVEN CALM
AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AT PKB, CKB AND EKN. HIGH AT CRW,
HTS AND BKW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ
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