830
FXUS61 KRLX 070739
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
OTHERWISE DRY TODAY. COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO END
THIS MORNING, LEAVING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND A WARMER AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD PUSH SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED, WITH ENSEMBLE INTERQUARTILE
RANGE NOW BETWEEN 500-1500J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND DRY MID-LEVELS WILL DRAG WET BULB ZERO
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 9KFT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONGER
CORES WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND MARGINALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, LESS INSTABILITY AND LESS MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD YIELD JUST GENERAL THUNDER.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS RIDING
ALONG THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE METRO VALLEY.
COLUMN MOISTURE LIMITED TO 1-1.25 INCHES WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT
IMPACTS TO ISOLATED HIGH WATER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO BAROTROPIC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY BLOCK ADVECTION OF ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE
POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND YIELDING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP-UP SHOWERS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
METRO VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY, THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE NORTHEAST ADVECTING
SOME BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY LONG DWELL TIME OVER THE SOUTH, AND NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO BEGIN
WITH, NOT EXPECTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE,
ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF SPRING SUN ANGLE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD SOME MODEST CAPE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
PRETTY MODEST AS THE LOW WOBBLE IN LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT,
BECOMING VERY LIGHT AS IT WANDERS OVERHEAD. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE
VERY SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON CONVECTION YIELDING SOME LOCALIZED
WATER ISSUES BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS WIDENED SOME OVER YESTERDAY WITH THIS FEATURE,
NOT OVERLY SURPRISING GIVEN HOW POORLY MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE
FEATURES CUT-OFF FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A RESULT.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING.
A FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
GRADUALLY END THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
AREA COULD SEE SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES OR LOW
CLOUDS. SOUTH OF THIS AREA EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND
NORTHERN WV, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COULD VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/07/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H L H H L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY
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