098
FXUS61 KRLX 071630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1230 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
OTHERWISE DRY TODAY. COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO NECESSARY UPDATES
NEEDED. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO END
THIS MORNING, LEAVING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND A WARMER AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD PUSH SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1227 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL, BUT
COMFORTABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AREAWIDE, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRINGS A LIGHT, NORTHERLY BREEZE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1227 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AND THE THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY CREATE A
SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HAIL THREAT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITS
TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...
SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS, REMAINING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND
NORTHERN WV, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CLOUDS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COULD VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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