983
FXUS61 KRLX 071720
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
120 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH
LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
APPALACHIA BENEATH A THIN VEIL OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TIME OF WRITING HAS RISEN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SO FAR TODAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING INTO
THE 70S BY PEAK HEATING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT YIELDS POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
VALLEY FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR DENSE
FOG SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL THEN QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE.
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS UP FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS COULD GROW TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE THAT COULD RESULT IN HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON THURSDAY AS TO WHAT
WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1227 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL, BUT
COMFORTABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AREAWIDE, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRINGS A LIGHT, NORTHERLY BREEZE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1227 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AND THE THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY CREATE A
SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HAIL THREAT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITS
TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY MVFR CUMULUS FIELDS RESIDING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA PROMPTED A FEW TEMPO GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHERWISE A QUIET AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY. THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR TAF SITES.
IFR/LIFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW
BEFORE RISING AFTER 12Z.
A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY ENCROACH THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITHIN THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE EROSION OF
MORNING FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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