828
FXUS61 KRLX 080456
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1256 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GENERATE DECENT AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES, THEN SOME LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FREEZING LEVEL RANGES FROM 8500 TO 10000 FEET.
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME DAMAGING WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED
BY COOLING TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1227 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL, BUT
COMFORTABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AREAWIDE, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRINGS A LIGHT, NORTHERLY BREEZE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1227 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AND THE THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY CREATE A
SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HAIL THREAT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITS
TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL EARLY THIS MORNING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THICKER CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
SHOULD PREVENT THE FOG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS
TODAY, MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/08/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M M L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L M M L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L M M M M M L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M L L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L M M L H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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