668
FXUS61 KRLX 251454
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS LATE TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN SETS UP
FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATE-MORNING UPDATE. STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AROUND THE
ELKINS AREA.
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
CONTRIBUTED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, SO ADJUSTED DOWN ACCORDINGLY. A STRONG SIGNAL OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
OHIO, TYGART VALLEY, AND ELK RIVER BASINS. ALL OTHER FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE BEHAVING AS ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, TODAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY LESS TRANQUIL WEATHER IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DECENT OVERALL. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING,
PATCHES OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THE TYGART VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER BASINS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED OVERHEAD. DECENT DECOUPLING
WILL ALSO YIELD MORNING LOWS TO STUMBLE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SPROUTING AREAS OF FROST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A FROST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME OVERTAKEN BY RAIN PRESSING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME DRY AIR FESTERING
NEAR THE SURFACE BEFORE RAIN CAN REACH THE SURFACE WITH ACTIVITY
TODAY. GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
SLIDE UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND HOVER THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD, BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
AT BEST. MAIN IMPLICATIONS FROM THIS ENCROACHING MOISTURE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SIMILAR READINGS TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, SPANNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES. A SLIGHT BUMP IN LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MITIGATES
CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FROST DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT AND SETS UP ACROSS TN/NC ON MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WILL DISSOLVE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
AREA. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (15-30%) ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND COALFIELDS OF SOUTHERN WV TO COVER ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM. OTHERWISE, A BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR MONDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER,
BUT STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL. LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO THE MID 70S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOW 70S.
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT DRAGS IT NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORCES A 500MB
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS BY THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LACKING ON TUESDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST IN SHOWERS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
BETWEEN 1.25" AND 1.75" AND MODELS SHOW A THETA-E PLUME SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE RECIPE FOR TRAINING SHOWERS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES THAT
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. CURRENT WPC QPF
FORECAST SHOWS A SWATH OF 1.00" TO 1.50" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE COALFIELDS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY WITH THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES, CONTINUING TO SHUNT
BURSTS OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WEDNESDAY WITH A FLUX OF INSTABILITY
BEING PICKED UP BY MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BY MIDWEEK
AS WELL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY REACHING THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONABLE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS SOMETIME ON THURSDAY AND AFTER THAT
THE FORECAST SEEMS UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS TO SPECIFICS, THOUGH
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TAKES AIM AT OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT COHESIVE AT ALL ON TIMING, BUT ARE STARTING TO AGREE THAT
THE FEATURE WILL MAKE A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION. LEFT IN
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO COVER THE
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS REACHED A FEW TAF SITES THIS MORNING (EKN
AND PKB) AS ANTICIPATED, AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS RISEN. AFTER A MOSTLY QUIET
MORNING, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTH DRIVES MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE GROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THEM REACHING ANY AIRFIELD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF BKW. MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS HINTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EROSION OF MORNING FOG MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK
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