449
FXUS61 KRLX 251547
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1147 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS LATE TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATE-MORNING UPDATE. STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AROUND THE
ELKINS AREA.
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
CONTRIBUTED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, SO ADJUSTED DOWN ACCORDINGLY. A STRONG SIGNAL OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
OHIO, TYGART VALLEY, AND ELK RIVER BASINS. ALL OTHER FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE BEHAVING AS ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, TODAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY LESS TRANQUIL WEATHER IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DECENT OVERALL. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING,
PATCHES OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THE TYGART VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER BASINS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED OVERHEAD. DECENT DECOUPLING
WILL ALSO YIELD MORNING LOWS TO STUMBLE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SPROUTING AREAS OF FROST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A FROST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME OVERTAKEN BY RAIN PRESSING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME DRY AIR FESTERING
NEAR THE SURFACE BEFORE RAIN CAN REACH THE SURFACE WITH ACTIVITY
TODAY. GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
SLIDE UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND HOVER THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD, BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
AT BEST. MAIN IMPLICATIONS FROM THIS ENCROACHING MOISTURE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SIMILAR READINGS TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, SPANNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES. A SLIGHT BUMP IN LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MITIGATES
CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FROST DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT PWATS COULD REACH 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. 1 INCH OR GREATER
NBM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY 60-70% ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
MEANWHILE, 2 INCH OR GREATER NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30%
ACROSS WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WOULD BE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
BE LOCATED. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE TRAINING CELLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER URBAN/LOW-
LYING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR AREA
IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE AND MAY DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF
MORNING SHOWERS AND WHETHER CLOUDS EVENTUALLY CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE.
NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES
OF 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ARE ONLY 20%. 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 30-35 KTS, WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES
AVAILABLE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SO SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS. THE GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FRIDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. MEANWHILE, THE EURO
KEEPS THAT SURFACE LOW WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH, BUT STILL
BRINGS US SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WOBBLES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS REACHED A FEW TAF SITES THIS MORNING (EKN
AND PKB) AS ANTICIPATED, AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS RISEN. AFTER A MOSTLY QUIET
MORNING, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTH DRIVES MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE GROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THEM REACHING ANY AIRFIELD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF BKW. MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS HINTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EROSION OF MORNING FOG MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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