169
FXUS61 KRLX 251848
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN
SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT THE CIRRUS WAS FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY, THOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF SOME SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WAS MAINTAINED,
THOUGH POPS ARE KEPT TO CHANCE OR LESS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON COVERAGE. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER.
AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH CALMING WINDS, SO WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE VALLEY FOG, BUT MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT. PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AT ELKINS AND THE HIGH VALLEYS AROUND
THERE, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FURTHER EAST AROUND CLARKSBURG.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MILD
AND DRY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, CLOUDS MAY
LINGER DOWN SOUTH AS THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, BUT
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT PWATS COULD REACH 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. 1 INCH OR GREATER
NBM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY 60-70% ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
MEANWHILE, 2 INCH OR GREATER NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30%
ACROSS WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WOULD BE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
BE LOCATED. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE TRAINING CELLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER URBAN/LOW-
LYING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR AREA
IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE AND MAY DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF
MORNING SHOWERS AND WHETHER CLOUDS EVENTUALLY CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE.
NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES
OF 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ARE ONLY 20%. 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 30-35 KTS, WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES
AVAILABLE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SO SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS. THE GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FRIDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. MEANWHILE, THE EURO
KEEPS THAT SURFACE LOW WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH, BUT STILL
BRINGS US SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WOBBLES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY STAY
HIGH-LEVEL, BUT SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE FL060 ARE POSSIBLE.
MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS HINTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AROUND ELKINS. DID PUT
IN SOME LIFR FG FOR EKN IN THE HOURS BEFORE 12Z, AND DID PUT
VCFG INTO CKB, AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG TIMING AND EXTENT TONIGHT,
HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND EROSION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK
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