515
FXUS61 KRLX 260201
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA AS A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES. AN ACTIVE AND WET
PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, PROVIDING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER
OVERCOMING A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM THE SFC-H800, WELL NOTED
ON THE 00Z RNK RAOB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CONFINED TO IN/NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME CLEARING ATTEMPTS TO WORK
IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELKINS AREA.
GIVEN LINGERING CLOUD COVER, CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION IS ON
THE LOW END. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 540 PM SUNDAY...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES
TO THE WEST ARE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
PRESENT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA, WITH ANY ACTIVITY BEING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW-LEVELS.
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT THE CIRRUS WAS FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY, THOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF SOME SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WAS MAINTAINED,
THOUGH POPS ARE KEPT TO CHANCE OR LESS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON COVERAGE. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER.
AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH CALMING WINDS, SO WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE VALLEY FOG, BUT MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT. PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AT ELKINS AND THE HIGH VALLEYS AROUND
THERE, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FURTHER EAST AROUND CLARKSBURG.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MILD
AND DRY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, CLOUDS MAY
LINGER DOWN SOUTH AS THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, BUT
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT PWATS COULD REACH 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. 1 INCH OR GREATER
NBM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY 60-70% ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
MEANWHILE, 2 INCH OR GREATER NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30%
ACROSS WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WOULD BE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
BE LOCATED. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE TRAINING CELLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER URBAN/LOW-
LYING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR AREA
IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE AND MAY DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF
MORNING SHOWERS AND WHETHER CLOUDS EVENTUALLY CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE.
NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES
OF 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ARE ONLY 20%. 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 30-35 KTS, WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES
AVAILABLE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SO SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS. THE GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FRIDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. MEANWHILE, THE EURO
KEEPS THAT SURFACE LOW WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH, BUT STILL
BRINGS US SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WOBBLES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 830 PM SUNDAY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST KY,
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV, AND SOUTHWEST VA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS IN/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS IN STRATUS. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, PERHAPS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AT EKN, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW/MEDIUM.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY, WITH JUST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
MVFR CIGS ARE PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, INCLUDING AT BKW. FURTHER
NORTH, A FEW/SCT CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AMID VFR
CONDITIONS.
GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG EXTENT TONIGHT, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN OVERNIGHT. TIMING
OF MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/26/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page