666
FXUS61 KRLX 260542
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
OBS SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS HOUR WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS REMAINING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THE
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE IS CURRENTLY OFF TO THE EAST, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SHUTS OFF LATER THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PRECIPITATION EXODUS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL
BE FAIRLY COOL WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S BEING COMMON.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE REMAINING AN INFLUENCE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (15-30%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA WITH ANOTHER PASSING
DISTURBANCE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (7-12MPH). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO THE MID 60S, WHICH IS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
FORM OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A RESULT. LIKELY WILL
SEE SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT PWATS COULD REACH 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. 1 INCH OR GREATER
NBM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY 60-70% ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
MEANWHILE, 2 INCH OR GREATER NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30%
ACROSS WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WOULD BE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
BE LOCATED. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE TRAINING CELLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER URBAN/LOW-
LYING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR AREA
IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE AND MAY DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF
MORNING SHOWERS AND WHETHER CLOUDS EVENTUALLY CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE.
NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES
OF 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ARE ONLY 20%. 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 30-35 KTS, WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES
AVAILABLE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1146 AM SUNDAY...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SO SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS. THE GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FRIDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. MEANWHILE, THE EURO
KEEPS THAT SURFACE LOW WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH, BUT STILL
BRINGS US SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WOBBLES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...
STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AT THIS HOUR WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE, THOUGH IT HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. EXPECTING A FEW MORE HOURS
OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHUTTING OFF BY ABOUT ~09-10Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PROMINENT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER MID-
LEVEL BKN OR OVC CEILINGS, BUT EXPECTING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHICH WILL
LIKELY IMPACT BKW. ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILTER
OUT SOME BY ~10Z, WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERNS FOR PATCHY FOG
FORMATION. NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN FORMATION, BUT EKN MAY SEE
SOME MVFR OR IFR IMPACTS IF ANY BREAKS FORM IN CLOUD COVER
LATER.
VFR RESUMES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY ~13Z, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING BKW. SCT CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON, BUT MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A
FEW SITES REMAINING CALM UNTIL ~12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN OVERNIGHT. TIMING
OF MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/26/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC
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