157
FXUS61 KRLX 261535
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1135 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY EXCEPT VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SLOPES. AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN SETS UP
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1130 AM MONDAY...
BASED ON WEBCAM IMAGERY, STILL SEEING SOME DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING UP AGAINST OUR WESTERN SLOPES. HAVE ADDED
SOME ADDITIONAL POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
CONTINUED CAD.
AS OF 523 AM MONDAY...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST. SEEING SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME PROMINENT BANDS
ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN VA.
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
OBS SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS HOUR WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS REMAINING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THE
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE IS CURRENTLY OFF TO THE EAST, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SHUTS OFF LATER THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PRECIPITATION EXODUS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL
BE FAIRLY COOL WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S BEING COMMON.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE REMAINING AN INFLUENCE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (15-30%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA WITH ANOTHER PASSING
DISTURBANCE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (7-12MPH). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO THE MID 60S, WHICH IS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
FORM OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A RESULT. LIKELY WILL
SEE SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIA FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANTECEDENT DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
NON-LOW LYING AREAS.
A STEADY STREAM OF RAIN LOFTS INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENCOURAGE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS RESIDENCY OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, PROGGED TO LAST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY PER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. A WARM FRONT SAILS NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WILL
ENCOURAGE A BLANKETING SPREAD OF SHOWERS AND INSTANCES OF
THUNDER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
THEN REMAIN MASKED BENEATH PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
MARCHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS
MEANDERING DISTURBANCE, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVENT
PANS OUT. OVERALL PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE TOTALS COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY
AGGRAVATED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTRIBUTED BY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR WILL BE OUR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY COUNTIES, AS THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATED
FORECAST TOTALS AND THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN OUR
AREA OF FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AROUND THE AREA RECENTLY AND DECENT AREAL
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS SOILS COULD HANDLE THE
ANTICIPATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
HOISTING ANY WATCHES UP WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS A SLOW TO VACATE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TAPERING DOWN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN LOWLANDS. THE FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY,
CAPITALIZING ON DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ONE LAST BATCH OF LOW
END CHANCE POPS (AROUND 20% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND BETWEEN 30
AND 40% CHANCE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
MODEL VARIABILITY WIDENS HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH A FEW GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS AN ONGOING
ACTIVE STATE WITH ITS LATEST RUN. CENTRAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, AND SEE NO REASON TO
ATTEMPT ANY CHANGES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD ONTO A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN APPROACH FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS CARRYING INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.
A STEADY CONTINUUM OF DAILY TEMPERATURES OSCILLATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
SPANNING THE 60S/70S EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TUMBLING DOWN
INTO THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...
STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH BKW REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CEASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER ACROSS SOUTHERN
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL IMPACT BKW
THOUGH SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING BKW WHERE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SCT CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND RAIN AT BKW MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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