385
FXUS61 KRLX 261719
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
119 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD TODAY EXCEPT VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SLOPES. AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN SETS UP
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1130 AM MONDAY...
BASED ON WEBCAM IMAGERY, STILL SEEING SOME DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING UP AGAINST OUR EASTERN SLOPES. HAVE ADDED
SOME ADDITIONAL POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
CONTINUED CAD.
AS OF 523 AM MONDAY...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST. SEEING SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME PROMINENT BANDS
ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN VA.
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
OBS SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS HOUR WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS REMAINING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THE
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE IS CURRENTLY OFF TO THE EAST, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SHUTS OFF LATER THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PRECIPITATION EXODUS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL
BE FAIRLY COOL WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S BEING COMMON.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE REMAINING AN INFLUENCE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (15-30%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA WITH ANOTHER PASSING
DISTURBANCE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (7-12MPH). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO THE MID 60S, WHICH IS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
FORM OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A RESULT. LIKELY WILL
SEE SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIA FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANTECEDENT DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
NON-LOW LYING AREAS.
A STEADY STREAM OF RAIN LOFTS INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENCOURAGE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS RESIDENCY OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, PROGGED TO LAST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY PER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. A WARM FRONT SAILS NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WILL
ENCOURAGE A BLANKETING SPREAD OF SHOWERS AND INSTANCES OF
THUNDER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
THEN REMAIN MASKED BENEATH PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
MARCHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS
MEANDERING DISTURBANCE, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVENT
PANS OUT. OVERALL PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE TOTALS COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY
AGGRAVATED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTRIBUTED BY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR WILL BE OUR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY COUNTIES, AS THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATED
FORECAST TOTALS AND THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN OUR
AREA OF FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AROUND THE AREA RECENTLY AND DECENT AREAL
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS SOILS COULD HANDLE THE
ANTICIPATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
HOISTING ANY WATCHES UP WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...
THE TRICK OF THE TALE THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS AND AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HANGING BACK FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM, AND DEPENDS UPON WHETHER IT COULD REMAIN SHARP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A
NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT TERM SHORT WAVE.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CARRIES THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OTHER DAYS THIS PERIOD, DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER WE COULD MUSTER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS.
FOR THURSDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS HIGHEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS, NEARER THE EXITING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT TERM SYSTEM, BUT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER NIL GIVEN THE
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WE MAY EVOLVE INTO A DRIER PATTER BETWEEN THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT, AND A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...
STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH BKW REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CEASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER ACROSS SOUTHERN
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL IMPACT BKW
THOUGH SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING BKW WHERE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SCT CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND RAIN AT BKW MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC
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