231
FXUS61 KRLX 261819
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE LAST MOSTLY DRY TODAY TODAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
KEY POINT:
* PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
IN ON TUESDAY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP THOSE LOCATIONS MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE EVERYONE ELSE ENJOYS
THE REMAINDER OF LOVELY MEMORIAL DAY. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE FARTHER NORTHWEST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION/H850 MASS CONVERGENCE
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
(NEARLY NONE THROUGH A BULK OF THE PERIOD) FORCED ASCENT WITH MASS
CONVERGENCE AT H850 IN THE MORNING AND WITH A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR SOME
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
EVERYTHING NOW FULLY GREENED UP, THINK WE WILL LARGELY HANDLE THE
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASIDE FROM ANY
POTENTIAL ISSUES IN BUILT UP AREAS OR AREAS OF VERY POOR DRAINAGE.
BOTH CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF ARE PROBABLY RUNNING A LITTLE HOT
ESPECIALLY WITH EARLY ACTIVITY IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
WOULD TEND TO YIELD RAIN SHADOW IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL FROM THE KY/OH/WV TRI-STATE
UP TOWARD PARKERSBURG, BUT THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES HAS
SHIFTED QUITE A BIT AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH H500
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER TOWARD THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIA FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANTECEDENT DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
NON-LOW LYING AREAS.
A STEADY STREAM OF RAIN LOFTS INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENCOURAGE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS RESIDENCY OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, PROGGED TO LAST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY PER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. A WARM FRONT SAILS NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WILL
ENCOURAGE A BLANKETING SPREAD OF SHOWERS AND INSTANCES OF
THUNDER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
THEN REMAIN MASKED BENEATH PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
MARCHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS
MEANDERING DISTURBANCE, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW THIS EVENT
PANS OUT. OVERALL PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE TOTALS COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY
AGGRAVATED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTRIBUTED BY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR WILL BE OUR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY COUNTIES, AS THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATED
FORECAST TOTALS AND THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN OUR
AREA OF FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AROUND THE AREA RECENTLY AND DECENT AREAL
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS SOILS COULD HANDLE THE
ANTICIPATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
HOISTING ANY WATCHES UP WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...
THE TRICK OF THE TALE THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS AND AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HANGING BACK FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM, AND DEPENDS UPON WHETHER IT COULD REMAIN SHARP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A
NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT TERM SHORT WAVE.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CARRIES THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OTHER DAYS THIS PERIOD, DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER WE COULD MUSTER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS.
FOR THURSDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS HIGHEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS, NEARER THE EXITING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT TERM SYSTEM, BUT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER NIL GIVEN THE
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WE MAY EVOLVE INTO A DRIER PATTER BETWEEN THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT, AND A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT AT BKW,
WHERE SLOP OVER IN COLD AIR DAMMING WILL YIELD IFR/VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR THROUGH
EARLY/LATE MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO WILL LEAVE OUT
CONVECTION FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND LESS THAN 8KTS EXCEPT AT BKW WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WILL YIELD SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID 20S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS IN BKW AND
DETERIORATION AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP
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