389
FXUS61 KRLX 270548
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNING ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST WEST OF THE AREA. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...
HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
GENERALLY BRINGING THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN WAS ORIGINALLY PROGGED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AT PRESENT. RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES NEAR OR
SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN, THEN STEADILY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE,
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 525 PM MONDAY...
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY COOLER IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN), WIND GUSTS (SLIGHTLY HIGHER), AND CLOUD COVER
(MORE CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN WV) THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
KEY POINT:
* PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
IN ON TUESDAY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP THOSE LOCATIONS MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE EVERYONE ELSE ENJOYS
THE REMAINDER OF LOVELY MEMORIAL DAY. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE FARTHER NORTHWEST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION/H850 MASS CONVERGENCE
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
(NEARLY NONE THROUGH A BULK OF THE PERIOD) FORCED ASCENT WITH MASS
CONVERGENCE AT H850 IN THE MORNING AND WITH A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR SOME
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
EVERYTHING NOW FULLY GREENED UP, THINK WE WILL LARGELY HANDLE THE
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASIDE FROM ANY
POTENTIAL ISSUES IN BUILT UP AREAS OR AREAS OF VERY POOR DRAINAGE.
BOTH CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND WPC QPF ARE PROBABLY RUNNING A LITTLE HOT
ESPECIALLY WITH EARLY ACTIVITY IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
WOULD TEND TO YIELD RAIN SHADOW IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL FROM THE KY/OH/WV TRI-STATE
UP TOWARD PARKERSBURG, BUT THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES HAS
SHIFTED QUITE A BIT AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH H500
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER TOWARD THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
A PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE A STRONGER COASTAL SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PRIMARY CENTER
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND FILLS IN A RELATIVE WAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE COASTAL CENTER DRIFTS OFFSHORE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER WASHES OUT AS
THE FILLING CENTER LIFTS NORTH.
AS THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, FLAT SHORT WAVES TROUGHS SOUTH OF THE IT TRACK ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A STRONGER, POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO LOW LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE, IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYSTEM, BEFORE SETTLING
DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH OR EVEN LESS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR, BEFORE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
EXITING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FORCING ON
WEDNESDAY.
FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALLUDED TO IN THE NEAR
TERM DISCUSSION, AND LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT FALLS ON
TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAY BE MAINTAINED WITH TH HELP OF
DIURNAL HEATING WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED, WITH PERHAPS ELEVATED
NARROW CAPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IF WE
COULD MANAGE SOME HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MODEST
SHEAR, HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE SYSTEM LUMBERS ON BY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT, A
LITTLE BELOW ON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE ON LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...
THE TRICK OF THE TALE THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS AND AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HANGING BACK FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM, AND DEPENDS UPON WHETHER IT COULD REMAIN SHARP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A
NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT TERM SHORT WAVE.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CARRIES THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OTHER DAYS THIS PERIOD, DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER WE COULD MUSTER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS.
FOR THURSDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS HIGHEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS, NEARER THE EXITING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT TERM SYSTEM, BUT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER NIL GIVEN THE
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WE MAY EVOLVE INTO A DRIER PATTER BETWEEN THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT, AND A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 146 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. MVFR AND IFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VA WHICH INCLUDES BKW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER ~06Z AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND ~00Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ESE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE PICKING UP
AFTER ~12Z AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES (15-25KTS) BY THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LLWS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. CIGS AT CRW/CKB
TODAY MAY VARY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/27/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC
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