446
FXUS61 KRLX 270658
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOAKING RAIN RETURNS TODAY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST WEST OF THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES IN TODAY.
* UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NE KY AND SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WV TODAY.
* RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE BENEFICIAL, BUT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING SHOWERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
* SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GAIN STEAM AND LIFT
NORTH INTO TN TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH SPAWNING OFF OF A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS
A RESULT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAINFALL WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE KY, SW VA, AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV.
PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.50" WITH A THETA-E PLUME SETTING
UP OVER EASTERN KY AND SW VA. THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN SOME TRAINING SHOWERS, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED TO
ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE A
CONCERN FOR COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN KY AND THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE
MODELS HAVE PERSISTENTLY BEEN PLOTTING A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
OVERALL, THINKING THAT ANY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS IT
HAS BEEN ALMOST A WEEK SINCE THE LAST SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS, PLUS 1-HR AND 3-HR FFG IS ABOVE 1.50" AND 2.00". ALSO, CAMS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SOME ON AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
NONETHELESS, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EXISTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OUTLOOKED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE. THE LOWLANDS WILL STAY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN THE
40S AND 50S. HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE KEEPS CHARLESTON IN THE 50S MOST
OF THE DAY, BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE THIS BUSTS DUE TO ESE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKEW TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DOCKS
JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
A PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE A STRONGER COASTAL SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PRIMARY CENTER
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND FILLS IN A RELATIVE WAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE COASTAL CENTER DRIFTS OFFSHORE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER WASHES OUT AS
THE FILLING CENTER LIFTS NORTH.
AS THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, FLAT SHORT WAVES TROUGHS SOUTH OF THE IT TRACK ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A STRONGER, POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO LOW LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE, IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYSTEM, BEFORE SETTLING
DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH OR EVEN LESS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR, BEFORE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
EXITING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FORCING ON
WEDNESDAY.
FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALLUDED TO IN THE NEAR
TERM DISCUSSION, AND LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT FALLS ON
TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAY BE MAINTAINED WITH TH HELP OF
DIURNAL HEATING WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED, WITH PERHAPS ELEVATED
NARROW CAPE TUESDAY NIGHT AND A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IF WE
COULD MANAGE SOME HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MODEST
SHEAR, HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE SYSTEM LUMBERS ON BY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT, A
LITTLE BELOW ON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE ON LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...
THE TRICK OF THE TALE THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS AND AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HANGING BACK FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM, AND DEPENDS UPON WHETHER IT COULD REMAIN SHARP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A
NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT TERM SHORT WAVE.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CARRIES THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OTHER DAYS THIS PERIOD, DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER WE COULD MUSTER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS.
FOR THURSDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS HIGHEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS, NEARER THE EXITING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT TERM SYSTEM, BUT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER NIL GIVEN THE
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WE MAY EVOLVE INTO A DRIER PATTER BETWEEN THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT, AND A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 146 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. MVFR AND IFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VA WHICH INCLUDES BKW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER ~06Z AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND ~00Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ESE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE PICKING UP
AFTER ~12Z AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES (15-25KTS) BY THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LLWS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. CIGS AT CRW/CKB
TODAY MAY VARY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/27/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC
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