167
FXUS61 KRLX 270719
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOAKING RAIN RETURNS TODAY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST WEST OF THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES IN TODAY.
* UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NE KY AND SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WV TODAY.
* RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE BENEFICIAL, BUT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING SHOWERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
* SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GAIN STEAM AND LIFT
NORTH INTO TN TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH SPAWNING OFF OF A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS
A RESULT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAINFALL WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE KY, SW VA, AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV.
PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.50" WITH A THETA-E PLUME SETTING
UP OVER EASTERN KY AND SW VA. THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN SOME TRAINING SHOWERS, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED TO
ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE A
CONCERN FOR COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN KY AND THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE
MODELS HAVE PERSISTENTLY BEEN PLOTTING A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
OVERALL, THINKING THAT ANY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS IT
HAS BEEN ALMOST A WEEK SINCE THE LAST SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS, PLUS 1-HR AND 3-HR FFG IS ABOVE 1.50" AND 2.00". ALSO, CAMS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SOME ON AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
NONETHELESS, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EXISTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OUTLOOKED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE. THE LOWLANDS WILL STAY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN THE
40S AND 50S. HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE KEEPS CHARLESTON IN THE 50S MOST
OF THE DAY, BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE THIS BUSTS DUE TO ESE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKEW TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DOCKS
JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FIRST INTRODUCED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WILL SEVER TIES FROM
ONE ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COLLECT A
PLETHORA OF THE SHARED MOISTURE, AND SHIFT THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE THE WESTERN SURFACE
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LIMITING POPS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN
FEASIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTAINED FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET,
RANGING BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALIZED HIGHER
SPOTS AROUND HALF AN INCH. OUTSIDE OF TROUBLESOME HIGH WATER
ISSUES THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ANTECEDENT DRY
WEATHER HAS ALLOWED ENOUGH SOIL RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS OF COURSE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT FALLS ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT RENEWED PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH KENTUCKY INTO
WEST VIRGINIA. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE
SHARPENED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON FRIDAY, THEN LESSENING
OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO VENTURE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY, WHICH MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS NOTION
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER DOWN ON SUNDAY AS THE VACATING
TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTHWARD, DRAGGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
YIELDS RISING H5 HEIGHTS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMID DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 146 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. MVFR AND IFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VA WHICH INCLUDES BKW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER ~06Z AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND ~00Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ESE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE PICKING UP
AFTER ~12Z AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES (15-25KTS) BY THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LLWS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. CIGS AT CRW/CKB
TODAY MAY VARY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/27/25
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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