887
FXUS61 KRLX 271640
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOAKING RAIN LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST
WEST OF THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO END THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 540 AM TUESDAY...
SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. MOST RAINFALL IS REMAINING A DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT CURRENTLY DUE TO DRIER AIR REMAINING ALOFT. MOST
SITES ARE REPORTING RH PERCENTAGES IN THE 60S AND 70S SO A BIT
OF A DRY AIR GAP NEEDS TO BE FILLED BEFORE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
GETS GOING.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO FORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED TODAY, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTION TO MANIFEST UNTIL TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES IN TODAY.
* UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NE KY AND SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WV TODAY.
* RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE BENEFICIAL, BUT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING SHOWERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
* SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GAIN STEAM AND LIFT
NORTH INTO TN TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH SPAWNING OFF OF A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS
A RESULT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAINFALL WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE KY, SW VA, AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV.
PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.50" WITH A THETA-E PLUME SETTING
UP OVER EASTERN KY AND SW VA. THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN SOME TRAINING SHOWERS, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED TO
ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE A
CONCERN FOR COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN KY AND THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE
MODELS HAVE PERSISTENTLY BEEN PLOTTING A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
OVERALL, THINKING THAT ANY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS IT
HAS BEEN ALMOST A WEEK SINCE THE LAST SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS, PLUS 1-HR AND 3-HR FFG IS ABOVE 1.50" AND 2.00". ALSO, CAMS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SOME ON AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
NONETHELESS, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EXISTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OUTLOOKED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE. THE LOWLANDS WILL STAY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN THE
40S AND 50S. HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE KEEPS CHARLESTON IN THE 50S MOST
OF THE DAY, BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE THIS BUSTS DUE TO ESE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKEW TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DOCKS
JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FIRST INTRODUCED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WILL SEVER TIES FROM
ONE ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COLLECT A
PLETHORA OF THE SHARED MOISTURE, AND SHIFT THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE THE WESTERN SURFACE
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LIMITING POPS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN
FEASIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTAINED FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET,
RANGING BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALIZED HIGHER
SPOTS AROUND HALF AN INCH. OUTSIDE OF TROUBLESOME HIGH WATER
ISSUES THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ANTECEDENT DRY
WEATHER HAS ALLOWED ENOUGH SOIL RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS OF COURSE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT FALLS ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY CROSS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MODELS WERE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, IN WHICH CASE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STOUT.
STOUT RAINFALL IS QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND ALSO
IN THE CEREBRAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE WRAPPING
AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL FOR THE MOST PART, DEPENDING UPON WHETHER
A DEFORMATION AXIS CAN TRAIN A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER A
SPECIFIC AREA WITHIN THE CEREBRAL.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE GETS REINFORCED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM COUNTERPART OVER THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
BENEATH THE RESULTING LONG WAVE TROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK, WHEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO OR TOWARD THE
AREA, DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY IF
THE TROUGH IS STILL NEAR ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL ON LOWS. THEN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY, BUT A SERIES OF COOL NIGHTS
ARE ON TAP, WITH LOWS A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE NEW
CALENDAR WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 557 AM TUESDAY...
SEEING SHOWERS MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST SITES ARE STILL REMAINING VFR OUTSIDE OF BKW WHICH
HAS BEEN REPORTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS DUE TO LACK OF PROPER INSTABILITY.
MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND ~00Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS MORE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE AREA AND SET UP
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ESE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE PICKING UP
AFTER ~12Z AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES (15-25KTS) BY THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LLWS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. CIGS AT CRW/CKB
TODAY MAY VARY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H L L H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC
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