350
FXUS61 KRLX 271727
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO END THE
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTH AT THIS HOUR, WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT.
SHOULD SEE THIS LULL START TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK TO STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PARCEL ASCENT
THROUGH THE -20C ISOTHERM AND WILL CODE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER,
MAINLY SOUTH.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TURNS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN
AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMA IN COVERAGE. MODEST DESTABILIZATION AMID
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 50KTS COULD YIELD A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT PRESENT, THIS IS OUT OUTLOOKED BY SPC,
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY END UP WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND VEGETATION FULLY GREENED UP.
BASIN AVERAGE EVENT TOTALS STILL LOOK TO COME IN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM HUNTINGTON TO CLARKSBURG.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FIRST INTRODUCED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WILL SEVER TIES FROM
ONE ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COLLECT A
PLETHORA OF THE SHARED MOISTURE, AND SHIFT THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE THE WESTERN SURFACE
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LIMITING POPS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN
FEASIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTAINED FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET,
RANGING BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALIZED HIGHER
SPOTS AROUND HALF AN INCH. OUTSIDE OF TROUBLESOME HIGH WATER
ISSUES THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, ANTECEDENT DRY
WEATHER HAS ALLOWED ENOUGH SOIL RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS OF COURSE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT FALLS ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY CROSS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MODELS WERE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, IN WHICH CASE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STOUT.
STOUT RAINFALL IS QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND ALSO
IN THE CEREBRAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE WRAPPING
AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL FOR THE MOST PART, DEPENDING UPON WHETHER
A DEFORMATION AXIS CAN TRAIN A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER A
SPECIFIC AREA WITHIN THE CEREBRAL.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE GETS REINFORCED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM COUNTERPART OVER THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
BENEATH THE RESULTING LONG WAVE TROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK, WHEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO OR TOWARD THE
AREA, DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY IF
THE TROUGH IS STILL NEAR ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL ON LOWS. THEN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY, BUT A SERIES OF COOL NIGHTS
ARE ON TAP, WITH LOWS A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE NEW
CALENDAR WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTH AT THIS HOUR, WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT.
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY YIELD A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY SOUTH AND WILL CODE UP VCTS FOR CRW/HTS AND BKW THIS EVENING -
OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF A CELL GETTING OVER ANY INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL IS
PRETTY LOW WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ON AND OFF AGAIN RAIN AFTER DARK). DOWNSLOPE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOMEWHAT VARIABLE CEILINGS FOR BKW/CRW
UNTIL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10KTS, EXCEPT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KT AT BKW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. CIGS AT CRW/BKW MAY VARY
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H L L H L
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP
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