209
FXUS61 KRLX 280229
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1029 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...
BESIDES THE AVIATION FORECAST BEING UPDATED FOR TAF TIME
(WINDS, SKY CONDITION, CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITY) THE ONLY
PARAMETER EDITED WAS THE POPS FIELD. THAT WAS TO ADD THE LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ADJUSTED WITH OBSERVATIONS AND OVERALL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO
ADDITIONAL EDITING IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTH AT THIS HOUR, WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT.
SHOULD SEE THIS LULL START TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK TO STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PARCEL ASCENT
THROUGH THE -20C ISOTHERM AND WILL CODE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER,
MAINLY SOUTH.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TURNS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN
AFTERNOON DIURNAL MAXIMA IN COVERAGE. MODEST DESTABILIZATION AMID
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 50KTS COULD YIELD A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT PRESENT, THIS IS OUT OUTLOOKED BY SPC,
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY END UP WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND VEGETATION FULLY GREENED UP.
BASIN AVERAGE EVENT TOTALS STILL LOOK TO COME IN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM HUNTINGTON TO CLARKSBURG.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA FILLS IN FAVOR OF A SLOWLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW CENTER THAT MOVES OFFSHORE, THE FORECAST AREA
ENDS UP WITHIN A RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BENEATH
RIDGING BEHIND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEAR-TERM SYSTEM.
WITH THE COLUMN DRYING OUT SAVE FOR THE LOW LEVELS, SHOWERS AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ANY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DIURNAL, AND A MID-
LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TOO SHALLOW FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS, AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIPPLE UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE
AND TRAVERSES THAT AREA LATE THURSDAY.
THE NEAR-TERM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND AN
INITIALLY ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT SCOOTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROTRUDING OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. AS THE ORIGINAL
ELONGATED LOW SHRINKS AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PIVOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT, BACKING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER, PIVOTING
SHORT WAVE BEGINS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE LOW THEN INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, IF NOT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING,
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR NORMAL BY DAY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY NIGHT
THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY CROSS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MODELS WERE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, IN WHICH CASE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STOUT.
STOUT RAINFALL IS QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND ALSO
IN THE CEREBRAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE WRAPPING
AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL FOR THE MOST PART, DEPENDING UPON WHETHER
A DEFORMATION AXIS CAN TRAIN A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER A
SPECIFIC AREA WITHIN THE CEREBRAL.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE GETS REINFORCED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM COUNTERPART OVER THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
BENEATH THE RESULTING LONG WAVE TROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK, WHEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO OR TOWARD THE
AREA, DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY IF
THE TROUGH IS STILL NEAR ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL ON LOWS. THEN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY, BUT A SERIES OF COOL NIGHTS
ARE ON TAP, WITH LOWS A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE NEW
CALENDAR WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...
OVERALL, THE TREND SO FAR IS MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOWER CIGS ARE ALSO APPARENT ON THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN FLANKS OF THE CWA TO WHERE PKB/BKW ARE
INUNDATED WITH BELOW 010FT BASES. THIS WILL ALL BE TEMPORARY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL CLIMB SLOWLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND VIS WILL BECOME LESS RESTRICTED DUE TO
LESS RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY MID-MORNING CIGS SHOULD START TO
BREAK OUT AND LIFT EVEN MORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOST SITES SHOULD SCATTER OUT, BUT THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN SITES
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO BROKEN CIGS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF
RAIN, SO MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS COMPLETELY BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AT CRW/BKW MAY VARY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VIS WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H H M L L L M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JZ
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