220
FXUS61 KRLX 280636
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
HIGHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THOUGH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
A SHALLOW WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES HITTING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVECTION HOWEVER
WILL BE LIMITED WITH CLOUD COVER, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND A COLD
FRONT HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOME
CLEAR AIR SETS UP. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE PRESENT IF ANY MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS FIRE UP AS FZL IS ONLY AROUND 10K-11K FEET, AND
WET BULB TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER.
OTHERWISE, A LULL WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE EVENING WITH
SOME WEST TO EAST CLEARING AS A COLD FRONT STATIONS ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA FILLS IN FAVOR OF A SLOWLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW CENTER THAT MOVES OFFSHORE, THE FORECAST AREA
ENDS UP WITHIN A RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BENEATH
RIDGING BEHIND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEAR-TERM SYSTEM.
WITH THE COLUMN DRYING OUT SAVE FOR THE LOW LEVELS, SHOWERS AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ANY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DIURNAL, AND A MID-
LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TOO SHALLOW FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS, AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIPPLE UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE
AND TRAVERSES THAT AREA LATE THURSDAY.
THE NEAR-TERM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND AN
INITIALLY ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT SCOOTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROTRUDING OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. AS THE ORIGINAL
ELONGATED LOW SHRINKS AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PIVOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT, BACKING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER, PIVOTING
SHORT WAVE BEGINS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE LOW THEN INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, IF NOT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING,
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR NORMAL BY DAY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY NIGHT
THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY CROSS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MODELS WERE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, IN WHICH CASE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STOUT.
STOUT RAINFALL IS QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND ALSO
IN THE CEREBRAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE WRAPPING
AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL FOR THE MOST PART, DEPENDING UPON WHETHER
A DEFORMATION AXIS CAN TRAIN A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER A
SPECIFIC AREA WITHIN THE CEREBRAL.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE GETS REINFORCED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM COUNTERPART OVER THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
BENEATH THE RESULTING LONG WAVE TROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK, WHEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO OR TOWARD THE
AREA, DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY IF
THE TROUGH IS STILL NEAR ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL ON LOWS. THEN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY, BUT A SERIES OF COOL NIGHTS
ARE ON TAP, WITH LOWS A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE NEW
CALENDAR WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
SEEING A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS STILL FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. IFR CIGS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OHIO, WHICH IS IMPACTING
BKW AND PKB. ELSEWHERE MVFR IS BEING REPORTED WITH EKN ACTUALLY
HOLDING VFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AS DOWNSLOPING SE'RLY
FLOW MAY KEEP CIGS FROM FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS LIKE
MODELS ARE PREDICTING. DID KEEP THIS SCHEME IN THE TAFS THOUGH
AS ANY SLACK IN THE WINDS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL, PLUS THERE
ARE MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE A BRIEF
BREAK IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF ANOTHER AFTERNOON ROUND. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THE
MORNING, BUT COME AFTERNOON SOME VFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
CARRY INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WEST TO EAST
CLEARING IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-25KT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SE TO SW SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR CEILINGS, OTHERWISE MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AT CRW/BKW/EKN WILL VARY THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW. VIS WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR SHOWERS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L M H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC
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