739
FXUS61 KRLX 280725
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
HIGHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THOUGH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
A SHALLOW WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES HITTING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVECTION HOWEVER
WILL BE LIMITED WITH CLOUD COVER, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND A COLD
FRONT HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOME
CLEAR AIR SETS UP. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE PRESENT IF ANY MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS FIRE UP AS FZL IS ONLY AROUND 10K-11K FEET, AND
WET BULB TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER.
OTHERWISE, A LULL WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE EVENING WITH
SOME WEST TO EAST CLEARING AS A COLD FRONT STATIONS ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER, ALBEIT MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE,
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS ELONGATED TROUGHING SEIZES RESIDENCY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PLANTS OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ENOUGH OF A WARM SECTOR TO GIVE RISE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, AIMING FOR OUR WESTERN BORDERS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGHEST CONTAINMENT OF POPS STROLL
INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND GLIDE UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXPAND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NORTHWARD TO ENGULF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WITHIN AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW TROUBLE SPOTS OF HIGH WATER MAY BE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY AS
HEAVIER RAIN TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO FALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FIRST NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO CHURN OUT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS WITH THE HELP OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
WEEKEND. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND THEN GROW CONTAINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEFORE FADING ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLATEAUING IN THE 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE PEAK OF THE DAY AND TUMBLING
DOWN INTO THE 40S/50S AT NIGHT.
THE MONTH OF JUNE OPENS UP WITH RENEWED DIURNAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. VEILED BENEATH CLOUDS AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS,
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE AHEAD OF A
WARMING TREND PROGGED FOR NEXT WEEK. IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY ERADICATE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL YIELD
DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A WARM SPELL TO TAKE HOLD OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIA, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SPANNING THE 70S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
SEEING A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS STILL FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. IFR CIGS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OHIO, WHICH IS IMPACTING
BKW AND PKB. ELSEWHERE MVFR IS BEING REPORTED WITH EKN ACTUALLY
HOLDING VFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AS DOWNSLOPING SE'RLY
FLOW MAY KEEP CIGS FROM FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS LIKE
MODELS ARE PREDICTING. DID KEEP THIS SCHEME IN THE TAFS THOUGH
AS ANY SLACK IN THE WINDS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL, PLUS THERE
ARE MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE A BRIEF
BREAK IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF ANOTHER AFTERNOON ROUND. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THE
MORNING, BUT COME AFTERNOON SOME VFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
CARRY INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WEST TO EAST
CLEARING IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-25KT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SE TO SW SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR CEILINGS, OTHERWISE MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AT CRW/BKW/EKN WILL VARY THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW. VIS WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR SHOWERS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L M H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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