357
FXUS61 KRLX 281627
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1227 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...
MESSY PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECT THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, AND WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ELSEWHERE,
ESPECIALLY IF WE GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER BUT STRAY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER, WITH A HEAVY BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH LESS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL, WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY KICKS OFF IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH
TO OUR WEST, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER, ALBEIT MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE,
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS ELONGATED TROUGHING SEIZES RESIDENCY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PLANTS OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ENOUGH OF A WARM SECTOR TO GIVE RISE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, AIMING FOR OUR WESTERN BORDERS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGHEST CONTAINMENT OF POPS STROLL
INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND GLIDE UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXPAND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NORTHWARD TO ENGULF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WITHIN AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW TROUBLE SPOTS OF HIGH WATER MAY BE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY AS
HEAVIER RAIN TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO FALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FIRST NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO CHURN OUT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS WITH THE HELP OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
WEEKEND. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND THEN GROW CONTAINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEFORE FADING ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLATEAUING IN THE 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE PEAK OF THE DAY AND TUMBLING
DOWN INTO THE 40S/50S AT NIGHT.
THE MONTH OF JUNE OPENS UP WITH RENEWED DIURNAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. VEILED BENEATH CLOUDS AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS,
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE AHEAD OF A
WARMING TREND PROGGED FOR NEXT WEEK. IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY ERADICATE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL YIELD
DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A WARM SPELL TO TAKE HOLD OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIA, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SPANNING THE 70S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...
SEEING A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS STILL FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS SPAN THE
OHIO RIVER RIVER SITES AND THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS (CRW, HTS, PKB).
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED, BUT BKW HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF ANOTHER AFTERNOON ROUND. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN
THE MORNING, BUT BY AFTERNOON VFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
CARRY INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WEST TO EAST
CLEARING IN THE EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-25KT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SE TO SW SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR CEILINGS, OTHERWISE MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AT CRW/BKW/EKN WILL VARY THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW. VIS WILL LIKELY VARY WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M L M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H M M M H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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