359
FXUS61 KRLX 290225
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SUNDAY, AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1020 PM WEDNESDAY ...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED POPS, BESIDES THE
AVIATION PACKAGE (WINDS, SKY CONDITION AND BASE HEIGHTS AS WELL
AS VISIBILITY), TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TREND AND
OBSERVATIONS. IN DOING SO ADDED IN A BLEND OF HI-RES TO CREATE A
SOLUTION THAT LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND FOR THE MORNING. ALSO, TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AS THE PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT IS
CLOSE TO NONE.
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...
MESSY PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECT THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, AND WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ELSEWHERE,
ESPECIALLY IF WE GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER BUT STRAY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER, WITH A HEAVY BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH LESS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL, WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY, AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY KICKS OFF IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH
TO OUR WEST, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH LINGERING
POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FRIDAY WOULD BE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, OUTSIDE OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HOWEVER, IF MODELS TREND SLOWER OVER THE COMING DAYS,
THEN WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO THOUGH,
AND MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF CAPE MEETING OR EXCEEDING 500
J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS GENERALLY 30% OR LESS AREAWIDE, WHICH GIVES
US CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED FOR OUR
AREA.
A FINAL, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT, AS SOME MODELS PROJECT IT TO
CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY, WHILE OTHERS ARE
SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS
ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE OF CAPE MEETING OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF CAPE
MEETING OR EXCEEDING 800 J/KG IS ONLY 20% OR LESS AREAWIDE.
THEREFORE, WE THINK THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
WOULD BE MARGINAL, AT BEST.
PWATS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED TO 1.50-1.75" FRIDAY, SO FLOODING WILL
STILL REMAIN A THREAT. ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE
CLARKSBURG AREA, WHERE FLOODING ISSUES HAVE BEEN ONGOING. IN
ADDITION, OTHER URBAN AREAS MAY BE AT RISK OF FLOODING, ALONG
WITH AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING CELLS. FLOODING WILL BE LESS OF A
CONCERN SATURDAY WITH MUCH LOWER PWATS AT 0.75-1.00".
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK, AND THE HEAT WILL
RETURN. EACH DAY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER NEXT WEEK (MON-
WED) AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO RISE. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE RISING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE HERE AFTER SUNSET AND AS SURFACE
FLOW WEAKENS HELPING AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. HAVE ALL SITES BUT HTS GOING TO IFR OR WORSE, HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS HTS AS WELL.
THINGS WILL BREAK OUT AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 15Z WHERE CIGS AND
VIS GO BACK TO MVFR OR BETTER WITH SURFACE FLOW PICKING UP OUT
OF THE WEST AT AROUND 5KTS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY FOG ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT MAY BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AT
HTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H M L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H M L L L L M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ
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