585
FXUS61 KRLX 290558
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SUNDAY, AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
OCCLUDING LOW SITS FAR OFF TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR A FRONT TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERHEAD. AREAS OF
DENSE VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OR WILL FORM THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE FLOW HAS CEASED AND MOISTURE FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S RAINFALL REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE THIS MORNING AS
FOG COLUMNS STRENGTHEN. NOT GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME AS WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A
MILE ARE NOT BEING REPORTED YET, BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE COMMENCES. DOT CAMERAS ALSO SHOW
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY, THE MOST
DENSE FOG IS LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, INTO THE METRO
VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FICKLE TO ERODE DURING THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT GAINING
STEAM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT'S FORWARD PROGRESS, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN WHERE OR WHEN AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (500-750
J/KG). SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER SBCAPE AND MUCAPE (AROUND 1,000
J/KG) ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE TRI-STATE AREA THOUGH. ANY
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLACK OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TONIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO RIDE UP FROM KY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THOUGH, WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GOING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH LINGERING
POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FRIDAY WOULD BE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, OUTSIDE OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HOWEVER, IF MODELS TREND SLOWER OVER THE COMING DAYS,
THEN WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO THOUGH,
AND MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF CAPE MEETING OR EXCEEDING 500
J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS GENERALLY 30% OR LESS AREAWIDE, WHICH GIVES
US CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED FOR OUR
AREA.
A FINAL, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT, AS SOME MODELS PROJECT IT TO
CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY, WHILE OTHERS ARE
SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS
ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE OF CAPE MEETING OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF CAPE
MEETING OR EXCEEDING 800 J/KG IS ONLY 20% OR LESS AREAWIDE.
THEREFORE, WE THINK THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
WOULD BE MARGINAL, AT BEST.
PWATS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED TO 1.50-1.75" FRIDAY, SO FLOODING WILL
STILL REMAIN A THREAT. ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE
CLARKSBURG AREA, WHERE FLOODING ISSUES HAVE BEEN ONGOING. IN
ADDITION, OTHER URBAN AREAS MAY BE AT RISK OF FLOODING, ALONG
WITH AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING CELLS. FLOODING WILL BE LESS OF A
CONCERN SATURDAY WITH MUCH LOWER PWATS AT 0.75-1.00".
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK, AND THE HEAT WILL
RETURN. EACH DAY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER NEXT WEEK (MON-
WED) AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO RISE. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE RISING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 AM THURSDAY...
DENSE VALLY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO CALM SURFACE
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. EXPECTING IFR OR
LOWER TO DEVELOP AT MULTIPLE SITES THIS MORNING. HTS AND BKW ARE
A BIT HARDER TO NAIL DOWN AS THEY HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
IFR AND VFR THE PAST FEW HOURS AS WINDS HAVE STAYED LIGHT AT
THESE LOCATIONS, BUT EXPECTING THESE SITES TO BECOME IMPACTED BY
~09Z. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WHICH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT BKW AND EKN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
MOST SITES SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR OR VFR BY ~13Z, THOUGH BKW AND
EKN MAY HOLD LOWER CIGS FOR A BIT LONGER IN THE MORNING. SW'RLY
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY AFTERNOON,
BUT COVERAGE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR A FEW SITES BY ~18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS AS
WELL LIKELY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L M H M L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L M L M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M L L
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC
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