107
FXUS61 KRLX 291408
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY, CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES. STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN SUNDAY, AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND TURNING HOT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1005 AM THURSDAY...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, AS THE FOG WAS
LIFTING INTO LOW CLOUD, WHICH WILL LIFT FURTHER AND BREAK UP
THROUGH NOON TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AS OF 407 AM THURSDAY...
UPGRADED THE LOWLANDS TO A DFA AHEAD OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
MOST ASOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA ARE HOLDING A QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS. DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION CAMS ALSO
SHOW RESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE MOST OF THE COALFIELDS,
METRO VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. I-64 BETWEEN
CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON AND I-77 FROM CHARLESTON TO
PARKERSBURG IS SHOWING SOME PARTICULARLY DENSE FOG WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE.
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
OCCLUDING LOW SITS FAR OFF TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR A FRONT TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERHEAD. AREAS OF
DENSE VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OR WILL FORM THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE FLOW HAS CEASED AND MOISTURE FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S RAINFALL REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE THIS MORNING AS
FOG COLUMNS STRENGTHEN. NOT GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME AS WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A
MILE ARE NOT BEING REPORTED YET, BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE COMMENCES. DOT CAMERAS ALSO SHOW
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY, THE MOST
DENSE FOG IS LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, INTO THE METRO
VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FICKLE TO ERODE DURING THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT GAINING
STEAM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT'S FORWARD PROGRESS, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN WHERE OR WHEN AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (500-750
J/KG). SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER SBCAPE AND MUCAPE (AROUND 1,000
J/KG) ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE TRI-STATE AREA THOUGH. ANY
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLACK OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TONIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO RIDE UP FROM KY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THOUGH, WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GOING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY COULD YIELD AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
* THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WITHIN REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, STIRRING UP AN INCREASED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ENCOURAGE INCREASED
COVERAGE IN RAIN, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
DEPENDING ON ITS ARRIVAL TIME, ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, COUPLED WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN FORECAST DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S AND OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE, COULD CONJURE UP A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. THIS LOOKS
TO BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS, WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN MOVE IN UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES NAM
SUGGESTS LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY, WHICH COULD THEN TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND
GROWING MORE DEFINED AS IT PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. WILL
BE CURIOUS TO SEE IF OTHER CAMS PICK UP ON SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR IF THIS TREND HOLDS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE NAM NEST.
WITH A DECENT JET STREAK ALOFT, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITHIN ANY STRONG STORM THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERITY THREAT WITH THIS PASSING
DISTURBANCE, ROUNDS OF EMBEDDED MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD YIELD INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING ON FRIDAY.
WHILE OVERALL QPF TOTALS ARE STILL MILDLY VARIED AMONGST THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SUITE, AVERAGE BASIN AMOUNTS ARE AIMING
SOMEWHERE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND UP THE I-79 CORRIDOR. THIS FORECAST AMOUNT
COULD ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH SOILS NOW
ALREADY PRIMED FROM PREVIOUS RAIN THIS WEEK, THE RISK FOR
FLOODING IS MORE FEASIBLE THAN WAS THE CASE THIS PAST WEDNESDAY,
WHEN GROUND CONDITIONS COULD SOAK UP A HIGHER QUANTITY OF
WATER. WILL BEGIN MENTION OF LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES IN THE
HWO, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBANIZED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO VACATE THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, DROPPING DOWN TO A GENERAL RISK, AND DIMINISHING
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING MORE COOL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* COOLER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
* ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
* BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER NEXT WEEK UNDER STOUT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CHARGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF PRECIPITATION AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR INTRUSION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT, MITIGATING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
ROBUST H5 RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
NUDGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN TOW, THE RIDGE WILL
ADVERTISE A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. BY TUESDAY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ARE
ANTICIPATED TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 80S, AND
RISING TO THE NEAR 90 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.
THE LATEST GFS HINTS AT THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVING JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD BOUNDS, SO FOR NOW HOLD
ONTO THE NOTION OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
DENSE VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS THE AREA REPORTING LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. MOST SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR
VFR BY ~13Z, THOUGH BKW AND EKN MAY HOLD MVFR CIGS FOR A BIT
LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING. SW'RLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP BY
MID MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO PROB30 GROUPS AND TEMPO HAVE
BEEN ADDED FOR A FEW SITES BY ~18Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT BKW,
CKB, AND EKN WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE AFTER ~00Z TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING
COULD VARY. TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H L H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...LTC
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