188
FXUS61 KRLX 291630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1230 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY, CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES. STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN SUNDAY, AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND TURNING HOT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1005 AM THURSDAY...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, AS THE FOG WAS
LIFTING INTO LOW CLOUD, WHICH WILL LIFT FURTHER AND BREAK UP
THROUGH NOON TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AS OF 407 AM THURSDAY...
UPGRADED THE LOWLANDS TO A DFA AHEAD OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
MOST ASOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA ARE HOLDING A QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS. DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION CAMS ALSO
SHOW RESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE MOST OF THE COALFIELDS,
METRO VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. I-64 BETWEEN
CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON AND I-77 FROM CHARLESTON TO
PARKERSBURG IS SHOWING SOME PARTICULARLY DENSE FOG WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE.
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
OCCLUDING LOW SITS FAR OFF TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR A FRONT TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERHEAD. AREAS OF
DENSE VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OR WILL FORM THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE FLOW HAS CEASED AND MOISTURE FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S RAINFALL REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE THIS MORNING AS
FOG COLUMNS STRENGTHEN. NOT GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME AS WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A
MILE ARE NOT BEING REPORTED YET, BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE COMMENCES. DOT CAMERAS ALSO SHOW
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY, THE MOST
DENSE FOG IS LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, INTO THE METRO
VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FICKLE TO ERODE DURING THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT GAINING
STEAM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT'S FORWARD PROGRESS, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN WHERE OR WHEN AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (500-750
J/KG). SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHER SBCAPE AND MUCAPE (AROUND 1,000
J/KG) ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE TRI-STATE AREA THOUGH. ANY
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLACK OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TONIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO RIDE UP FROM KY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THOUGH, WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GOING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE
CONTINUED COOL WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND BREEZY, BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. CONTINUED COOL, WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN U.S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A DRY AND WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA, PROVIDING MORE
ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR NOW, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY WEATHER TO
ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, OR IF IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS, EXPECTING ANOTHER SOAKING ROUND OF RAINS FOR
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
DENSE VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS THE AREA REPORTING LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. MOST SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR
VFR BY ~13Z, THOUGH BKW AND EKN MAY HOLD MVFR CIGS FOR A BIT
LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING. SW'RLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP BY
MID MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO PROB30 GROUPS AND TEMPO HAVE
BEEN ADDED FOR A FEW SITES BY ~18Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT BKW,
CKB, AND EKN WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE AFTER ~00Z TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING
COULD VARY. TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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