128
FXUS61 KRLX 291831
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DIE BY SUNSET. A POTENT LOW BRINGS
STOUT RAINFALL FRIDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS SOUTH. SHOWERS/STORMS
LINGER SATURDAY. DRY NEXT WEEK, TURNING HOT BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WV THIS AFTERNOON, IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FLAT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND A SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM
ONE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THEY APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A SHOWER
MAY GROW INTO A THUNDERSTORM.
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND/OR DIE WITH THE
SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND TONIGHT WILL START WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY AND LITTLE TO NO WIND. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO START
FORMING OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN SHOULD LIMIT
ITS INTENSITY AND DURATION, COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COMPACT BUT STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY, ITS MID/UPPER/LEVEL COUNTERPART SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPOT
LOW FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND IT. THIS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EFFICIENTLY SQUEEZE OUT
PW VALUES OF 1-1.3 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IF A FOCUSED DEFORMATION
BAND SETS UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGH
WATER IF MESOSCALE RAIN BANDS TRAIN IN RESPONSE. HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK, WHICH IS WHEN AND WHERE PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE
HIGHEST. MODEL QPF IS STILL BIMODAL, WITH ONE CAMP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN WV. THE SOUTHERN
CAMP HAS THE MOST SUPPORT AND IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
MODEST SHEAR AT ALL LEVELS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG, WITH DAMAGING WIND HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO ALL
POSSIBLE, WHERE CAPE CAN REACH 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT HAVE NOT ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR A TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS EAST
OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE BEING
CAPPED WITH THE RAINY DAY ON TAP TO CLOSE OUT THIS SHORT WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE
CONTINUED COOL WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND BREEZY, BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. CONTINUED COOL, WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN U.S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A DRY AND WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA, PROVIDING MORE
ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR NOW, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY WEATHER TO
ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, OR IF IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS, EXPECTING ANOTHER SOAKING ROUND OF RAINS FOR
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TO GROW INTO A
THUNDERSTORM IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND HAVE
CODED UP PROB30 FOR TSRA/CB FOR CRW AND BKW FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WITH THE MORNING FOG AND STRATOCUMULUS
GONE SAVE FOR PKB AND PERHAPS BKW EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON, VFR
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LITTLE TO NO WIND AND A PARTLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG
TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP FOG FROM GETTING AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND IT MAY EVEN BE A BIT QUICKER TO BURN OFF.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS FRIDAY,
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LOWERING TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 18Z FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED CODED UP FOR BKW AND EVEN CRW AMD HTS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MAY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN WV AS THE
LOW GOES BY NEAR THE END OF THR TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
AND THEN BECOME CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHEN IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN WV AS THE COMPACT LOW MOVES IN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF
A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPEARS DESTINED TO MOVE OVER
AN AIRPORT. FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE
UNCERTAIN. TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING
MAY VARY, AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEEDED ADDED TO SOUTHERN SITES
FOR FRIDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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