305
FXUS61 KRLX 300725
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POTENT LOW BRINGS STOUT RAINFALL FRIDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER SATURDAY. DRY
NEXT WEEK, TURNING HOT BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
MOST VALLEYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV, INTO NE KY AND SW
VA APPEAR TO HAVE FOG OR LOW STRATUS IN THEM, EVEN IN AREAS THAT
HAVE HAD HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOG IS MORE PATCHY IN NATURE, OR
ABSENT ALTOGETHER, OVER MOST OF SE OH AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV,
THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW A QUICK DETERIORATION
THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BETWEEN RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST, AND WINDS STARTING TO STIR AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, FOG SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING.
THAT RAIN, CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SW OHIO AND CENTRAL KY, SHOULD
WORK EAST TOWARDS THE HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE AREA BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND 9 AM, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY AROUND
MIDDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS THIS MORNING, THEN UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS, AND SPC DID MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL RISK OVER OUR AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR STRONG WINDS, BUT GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARIES AND LOW, AND SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING NICELY LOOPING HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, IF A
STRONG ENOUGH STORM DEVELOPS, A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ONCE
THE LOW PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH A GIVEN LOCATION, THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END THERE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
LARGELY BE TAMPED DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TRAILING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A RESURGENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THE CURRENT
QPF FORECAST USING MOSTLY WPC DATA SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1.00"
OR MORE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE CHARLESTON METRO
AND EAST TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR OUR FAR NW
COUNTIES, AND OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TOTALS GETTING UP TO OR EVEN OVER 2" APPEARS TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THEIR WESTERN SLOPES. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 1.5-2.25" OF RAIN IN THE TUE-THURS SYSTEM, THAT
WOULD BE OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. WHILE
A FEW OF THE HREF MEMBERS SHOW CONCERNING HIGH-END RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, AT THIS TIME, IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS AND WPC,
WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH INTO
OUR CWA AND WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR THE MORNING
MODEL DATA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE
CONTINUED COOL WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND BREEZY, BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. CONTINUED COOL, WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN U.S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A DRY AND WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA, PROVIDING MORE
ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR NOW, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY WEATHER TO
ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, OR IF IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS, EXPECTING ANOTHER SOAKING ROUND OF RAINS FOR
THE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS DONE FOR NOW UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS ON ITS WAY OUT BUT MORE
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS WILL ADVECT IN AND DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE CODED UP ALL SITES WITH IFR OR WORSE IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS FROM THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS
UNTIL SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO LOW MVFR OR
BETTER BY LATE MORNING THEN A SYSTEM BRINGS IN RAIN FROM THE
WEST STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN TERMINALS FIRST WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VIS
UNDER HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CIGS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
HEIGHT AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME GOES FOR THE
EASTERN SITES WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE WIND WILL PICK UP SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BKW
WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND IN VIS/CIGS.
TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY,
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEEDED ADDED TO SOUTHERN SITES FOR FRIDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/30/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M M H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M H H L L M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L M H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M L M H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK
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