125
FXUS61 KRLX 302344
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POTENT LOW BRINGS STOUT RAINFALL TODAY, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER SATURDAY. DRY
NEXT WEEK, TURNING HOT BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRIMMED DOWN TO JUST BARBOUR AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. WITH THE RAIN EXITING THE REST OF THE AREA
WAS NO LONGER IN THREAT OF FLOODING. THE REST OF THE WATCH MAY
BE CANCELLED SOONER THEN EXPIRATION IF THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF
THAT AREA.
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND SOME
MINOR EDITING TO SHAVE DOWN CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS
PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT IS VERY LOW AND THE SYSTEM IS KICKED
OUTSIDE OUR CWA. WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS SOON AS
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY.
OTHER THAN THAT, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR AVIATION GRIDS
WHICH NEEDED VERY MINOR TWEAKING TO WINDS, SKY CONDITION, CLOUD
BASE HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY.
AS OF 430 PM FRIDAY...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
THE AREA AND THE THREAT HAS ENDED.
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
TORNADO AND FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WV THIS AFTERNOON, AND ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM IT.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
INTO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IN AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW CENTER HAD ESSENTIALLY MADE IT ALL THE
WAY TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING HEATING
THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND RISING.
THE SEVERE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER AND THE LATEST WARN ON
FORECAST SYSTEM RUNS SUGGESTS SEVERE PROBABILITIES HIGHEST IN
THIS AREA, ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO WATCH DOES EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE, WHICH WILL BE FIRST
TO EXIT. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO EXITING EAST OF THE
AREA BY THEN, ENDING THE THREAT HERE ON THE UPSTREAM END OF THE
WATCH.
THE CEREBRAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE
NORTH SIDE TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WAS MOSTLY IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO, WHERE SOME AREA FLOODING WAS MATERIALIZING, AND THIS
SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND INTO THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA IN NORTHEAST WV. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW ONCE IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AGAIN AIDED BY
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT NOR CAUSE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
CONCERN.
THE WEATHER WILL OTHERWISE IMPROVE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST, AND GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WAS TAKING TEMPERATURES DOWN
INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT, AS OBSERVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL MUCH
FURTHER THERE, AND LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. HIGHS SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, AGAIN RESTRICTED TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1224 PM FRIDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO OUR REGION WILL PULL AWAY INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
SUNDAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BEHIND IT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY,
BUT LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AS A RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1224 PM FRIDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AXIS
FOCUSED OVER THE EAST COAST. A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT WARM, MUGGY AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS
RISING TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES FOR THE LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH
BY NEXT THURSDAY, WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND STAYS RATHER
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DETER MOST
FOG FORMATION, HOWEVER SOME SITES (SUCH AS CRW/EKN) MAY GET
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS, BUT WILL SCOUR OUT
WHEN THE WINDS PICK BACK UP FOR THEM BY MID MORNING. OTHER THAN
THAT, LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE ON AND OFF FOR
THE EASTERN SITES AND THE WESTERN SITES SHOULD STAY DRY UNLESS
A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECTS THEM OVERNIGHT OR IN THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF MVFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH END IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THEN VFR BY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES WILL VARY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M L H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M L M H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H L L H M H M M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ040-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ
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