842
FXUS61 KRLX 250602
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT EASES UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN AND LOWER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN FOR HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100S THIS AFTERNOON.
* TODAY BRINGS THE FIRST NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH, WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF AND LIFTS THIS MORNING, TODAY
BRINGS THE FIRST NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH, AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THAT DIRECTION. THIS MAY CRIMP
THE HEAT SLIGHTLY UP THERE.
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE, LITTLE SHEAR AND PW VALUES UP AROUND TWO
INCHES, THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAN BE VERY HEAVY, AND
DCAPE AMID INITIALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH BUT ALSO IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET,
ALLOWING VALLEY FOG TO FORM, MORE SO THAN RECENT NIGHTS
ANYWHERE IT RAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL, EVEN REVERSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH OR WASH OUT
ALTOGETHER TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL OTHERWISE BE SIMILAR AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS ON MIXING. HEAT INDICES WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM 100
TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNING MAY NOT QUITE HIT THE CRITERIA OF 105, BUT
WE ARE NOW IN THE FOURTH DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE, WITH IMPACTS
UNDOUBTEDLY ACCUMULATING. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON
TAP FOR TONIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT
HEAT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
INSTABILITY BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PROVIDING
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALLOWED GUIDANCE TO POPULATE LIKELY POPS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
AFTERNOON HEATING.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 100 MARK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IT WILL STILL BE HOT THIS WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 80S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
VALLEY FOG WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ANY SITE EXCEPT BKW. EKN AND PKB ARE MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE VLIFR DENSE FOG 08-12Z. BKW WILL HAVE MVFR IN HZ
AND MIST AT TIMES, MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT BY 12Z, EXCEPT PERHAPS 13Z EKN.
TODAY BRINGS THE FIRST NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THAT DIRECTION.
HAVE PROB30 TSRA CODED UP FOR PKB AND CKB 21-24Z.
VALLEY FOG MAY START FORMING BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT SITES IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BENEATH LIGHT,
MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY FORM EARLIER AND/OR BE WORSE THAN
FORECAST AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING MORNING. TIMING AND IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING, AS MAY
TIMING AND EXTENT OF POST-RAIN FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/25/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M M L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 24:
KCRW: 96 96/1929
KHTS: 97 105/1930
KCKB: 94 97/1923
KPKB: 94 96/1930
KBKW: 91 90/1949
KEKN: 92 90/1949
JUNE 25:
KCRW: 95 103/1930
KHTS: 97 101/1921
KCKB: 94 96/1930
KPKB: 95 100/1988
KBKW: 90 91/1914
KEKN: 92 92/1914
JUNE 26:
KCRW: 93 99/1934
KHTS: 94 99/1954
KCKB: 91 96/1930
KPKB: 92 97/1952
KBKW: 88 93/1934
KEKN: 88 90/2005
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ024-025-
032>034-039-040-515-517-519.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-026>031.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-083-
084.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-
076-085>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-102-105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ103.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
CLIMATE...TRM
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