291
FXUS61 KRLX 250736
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT EASES UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN AND LOWER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN FOR HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100S THIS AFTERNOON.
* TODAY BRINGS THE FIRST NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH, WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF AND LIFTS THIS MORNING, TODAY
BRINGS THE FIRST NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH, AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THAT DIRECTION. THIS MAY CRIMP
THE HEAT SLIGHTLY UP THERE.
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE, LITTLE SHEAR AND PW VALUES UP AROUND TWO
INCHES, THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAN BE VERY HEAVY, AND
DCAPE AMID INITIALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH BUT ALSO IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET,
ALLOWING VALLEY FOG TO FORM, MORE SO THAN RECENT NIGHTS
ANYWHERE IT RAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL, EVEN REVERSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH OR WASH OUT
ALTOGETHER TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL OTHERWISE BE SIMILAR AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS ON MIXING. HEAT INDICES WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM 100
TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNING MAY NOT QUITE HIT THE CRITERIA OF 105, BUT
WE ARE NOW IN THE FOURTH DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE, WITH IMPACTS
UNDOUBTEDLY ACCUMULATING. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON
TAP FOR TONIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT
HEAT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY HAVING RETREATED TONIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD AND RETAKE
CONTROL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, ALBEIT WEAKER AND DIRTIER.
ADDED MOISTURE AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CAPE, LITTLE SHEAR AND PW VALUES UP
AROUND TWO INCHES COULD LEAD TO STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
BY FRIDAY, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE A BIT CLEANER,
BUT THEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHEAR A BIT, AND ENHANCE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER EACH DAY, BUT
HIGH ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO WARRANT EXTENSION OF THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS FOR ONE MORE DAY, ON PERSISTENCE MORE THAN HEAT
INDICES ACTUALLY EXCEEDING 105 F. THE HEAT ADVISORIES TO THE
WEST OF THE WARNING, IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY,
AREA ALSO EXTENDED ANOTHER DAY. VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
FOG FORMATION WHEREVER THEY OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS FRONT ALSO RETREATS NORTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES NOT
BUILD BACK IN MUCH, AND WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW TAP THE VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MAY RAMP UP CONVECTION FURTHER LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, BUT
MAY THEN BE FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COME THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BOTH TAIL OFF TOWARD
NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
VALLEY FOG WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ANY SITE EXCEPT BKW. EKN AND PKB ARE MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE VLIFR DENSE FOG 08-12Z. BKW WILL HAVE MVFR IN HZ
AND MIST AT TIMES, MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT BY 12Z, EXCEPT PERHAPS 13Z EKN.
TODAY BRINGS THE FIRST NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THAT DIRECTION.
HAVE PROB30 TSRA CODED UP FOR PKB AND CKB 21-24Z.
VALLEY FOG MAY START FORMING BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT SITES IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BENEATH LIGHT,
MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY FORM EARLIER AND/OR BE WORSE THAN
FORECAST AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING MORNING. TIMING AND IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING, AS MAY
TIMING AND EXTENT OF POST-RAIN FOG TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/25/25
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M L M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M L L H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 24:
KCRW: 96 96/1929
KHTS: 97 105/1930
KCKB: 94 97/1923
KPKB: 94 96/1930
KBKW: 91 90/1949
KEKN: 92 90/1949
JUNE 25:
KCRW: 95 103/1930
KHTS: 97 101/1921
KCKB: 94 96/1930
KPKB: 95 100/1988
KBKW: 90 91/1914
KEKN: 92 92/1914
JUNE 26:
KCRW: 93 99/1934
KHTS: 94 99/1954
KCKB: 91 96/1930
KPKB: 92 97/1952
KBKW: 88 93/1934
KEKN: 88 90/2005
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>031.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ024-025-
032>034-039-040-515-517-519.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-083-084.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101-102-105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ103.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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