578
FXUS61 KRLX 260625
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT EASES UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
THE VERY WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, AS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA STARTS TO
DRIFTS BACK EVEN FARTHER NORTH.
NOW THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND, AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP
UP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE, LITTLE SHEAR AND PW VALUES UP AROUND TWO
INCHES, THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE VERY
HEAVY, AND DCAPE AMID INITIALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY WIND DAMAGE, FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEAST, FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A BIT LOWER TODAY, COMPARED WITH
RECENT DAYS DURING THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES
WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND AROUND 100 FOR THE REST OF THE WV
LOWLANDS, AND HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF AIR
CONDITIONING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1207 PM WEDNESDAY...
WEATHER CHARTS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE IT SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA. INSTEAD, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TO LIFT NORTH AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING UNDER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE, WITH PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY PROMOTING CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WHEREVER
THEY OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME, DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND AFTERNOON COOLING
SHOWER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1207 PM WEDNESDAY...
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BOTH TAIL OFF TOWARD NORMAL
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SINCE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED MINIMAL RAINFALL TO MOST
AIRPORTS, FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH WORSE THAN
RECENT NIGHTS. VLIFR DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY AT PKB
AND EKN FROM 08-10Z UNTIL 12Z, WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW
10-12Z.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF, EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD 4-6KFT AMID ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 TSRA GROUP ALL SITES 18-00Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON CAN CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE
OF DROPPING VISIBILITY TO IFR LEVELS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP. VALLEY FOG MAY START TO
FORM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CAUSE REVERSE ANVILS, SPREADING NORTHWEST OFF OF SOUTHEAST
DRIFTING CELLS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG WILL VARY EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE AMENDMENTS AS
THE ACTIVITY UNFOLDS. FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/26/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L M H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
OBSERVED (AS OF 5PM WEDNESDAY) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 25:
KCRW: 95 103/1930
KHTS: 96 101/1921
KCKB: 94 96/1930
KPKB: 93 100/1988
KBKW: 89 91/1914
KEKN: 90 92/1914
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 26:
KCRW: 93 99/1934
KHTS: 96 99/1954
KCKB: 92 96/1930
KPKB: 93 97/1952
KBKW: 88 93/1934
KEKN: 90 90/2005
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-026>031.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-083-
084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-
076-085>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-102-105.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ103.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...FK
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