394
FXUS61 KRLX 260851
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
451 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT EASES UP SLIGHTLY AS THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...
ADDED MINGO AND LOGAN COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
TODAY, SINCE IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS HOT THERE TODAY AS ON FRIDAY,
WHEN HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT THERE. THE FORECAST
IS OTHERWISE ON TRACK.
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
THE VERY WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, AS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA STARTS TO
DRIFTS BACK EVEN FARTHER NORTH.
NOW THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND, AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP
UP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE, LITTLE SHEAR AND PW VALUES UP AROUND TWO
INCHES, THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE VERY
HEAVY, AND DCAPE AMID INITIALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY WIND DAMAGE, FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEAST, FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WELL.
WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A BIT LOWER TODAY, COMPARED WITH
RECENT DAYS DURING THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES
WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND AROUND 100 FOR THE REST OF THE WV
LOWLANDS, AND HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER WARM AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF AIR
CONDITIONING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY. RIPPLES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVE THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND FROM PREVIOUS DAY CONVECTION, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POP UP EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE, LITTLE SHEAR AND PW VALUES UP AROUND TWO
INCHES, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CAN BE VERY HEAVY, AND DCAPE AMID INITIALLY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS.
SPC HAS CONTINUED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY
WIND DAMAGE, FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S., FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WELL FOR FRIDAY.
WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A BIT LOWER BY SATURDAY, COMPARED
WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND
AROUND 100 FOR THE REST OF THE WV LOWLANDS, ON FRIDAY,
WARRANTING THE HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. THE WARM, MUGGY NIGHTS CONTINUE, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
WHILE THE FRONT THAT APPROACHES EARLY THIS WEEKEND ALSO
RETREATS LATER THIS WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES NOT
BUILD BACK IN MUCH, AND WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW TAP THE VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MAY RAMP UP CONVECTION FURTHER LATE MONDAY AND/OR
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING, PROMOTING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRIER, SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER, WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY, COME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BOTH TAIL OFF TOWARD
NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SINCE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED MINIMAL RAINFALL TO MOST
AIRPORTS, FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH WORSE THAN
RECENT NIGHTS. VLIFR DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY AT PKB
AND EKN FROM 08-10Z UNTIL 12Z, WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW
10-12Z.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF, EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD 4-6KFT AMID ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 TSRA GROUP ALL SITES 18-00Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON CAN CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE
OF DROPPING VISIBILITY TO IFR LEVELS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP. VALLEY FOG MAY START TO
FORM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CAUSE REVERSE ANVILS, SPREADING NORTHWEST OFF OF SOUTHEAST
DRIFTING CELLS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG WILL VARY EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE AMENDMENTS AS
THE ACTIVITY UNFOLDS. FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/26/25
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H L M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
AND EARLY MORNING FOG, THROUGH MONDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
OBSERVED (AS OF 5PM WEDNESDAY) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 25:
KCRW: 95 103/1930
KHTS: 96 101/1921
KCKB: 94 96/1930
KPKB: 93 100/1988
KBKW: 89 91/1914
KEKN: 90 92/1914
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 26:
KCRW: 93 99/1934
KHTS: 96 99/1954
KCKB: 92 96/1930
KPKB: 93 97/1952
KBKW: 88 93/1934
KEKN: 90 90/2005 <- TIE (OR BREAK) POSSIBLE
FORECAST HIGHS TREND FURTHER SHY OF RECORD HIGHS AFTER TODAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-026>031.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ024-025.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-083-
084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-
076-085>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-102-105.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ103.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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